原木期货日报-20251231

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The 03 contract's fundamentals have marginally improved, but the weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the overall upside potential. The market is expected to trade in a range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On December 30th, the log 2601 contract was at 756.0, down 4.5 (-0.59%) from the previous day; the log 2603 contract remained flat at 776.0; the log 2605 contract was at 787.5, up 2.5 (0.32%) [2]. - The prices of various types of spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on December 30th compared to the previous day. The latest round of FOB quotes for radiata pine 4m medium A was 112 USD/JAS m³, and for spruce 11.8m was 126 EUR/JAS m³, both unchanged [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On December 29th, the RMB/USD exchange rate was 7.008, up 0.01 from the previous day, with a 0% change. The import theoretical cost was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 from the previous day, with a 0% change [2]. Supply: Monthly - In November, the port shipping volume was 189.2 million m³, down 12.1 million m³ (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, down 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 254 million m³, down 6 million m³ (-2.31%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 185.2 million m³, up 2.15%. In Jiangsu, it was 52.1 million m³, down 9.4 million m³ (-15.30%) [2][3]. Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 5.89 million m³, down 0.49 million m³ (-8%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 2.79 million m³, down 0.55 million m³ (-16%). In Jiangsu, it was 2.44 million m³, down 0.08 million m³ (-3%) [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 New Zealand softwood log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is expected to be 51.05 million m³, an increase of 20.45 million m³ from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 66.8% [3].