Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, copper prices rose significantly, influenced by the precious metals market and the warming of risk appetite at home and abroad. Considering the industrial perspective, the negative feedback from downstream in China is obvious, with the weekly operating rate of copper rods dropping seasonally and the overall social inventory accumulating rapidly. In the overseas market, the CL spread shows a slight compression trend. Looking ahead, with the continuous loose liquidity overseas, the overall idea for copper prices is to buy on dips, and the expected price range in December is between $10,800 and $12,500 [1]. - In November, the import volume of primary aluminum decreased significantly, while the exports of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and semi - finished products increased. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously estimated. The terminal sales of automobiles are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy is removed in 2026, but the month - on - month increase in photovoltaic installation is better than expected. Aluminum ingot and product inventories are accumulating, and apparent demand is declining. Although domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption show signs of weakening and the basis is at a multi - year low, the low inventory level and strong expectations can support the current high price [1]. - This week, the LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a volatile trend, alleviating the overseas supply - demand contradiction. On the supply side, the domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, and the domestic zinc ore supply will be marginally tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. With the approaching of winter storage, domestic smelters are competing for zinc ore inventory. Currently, the profit is acceptable, but attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on the total profit. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was officially put into production, and the production increase of other smelters is limited. In December, many smelters such as Chihong, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang are under maintenance and are expected to resume production in mid - January, with a month - on - month decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and downstream orders at the end of the year are weak; overseas, European demand is average, and US zinc ingot imports have increased recently. As the export window gradually opens, the domestic social inventory is oscillating downward, the domestic spot is in short supply, and the premium remains high. The LME inventory overseas has rebounded, and the premium has changed to backwardation. In terms of strategy, the domestic fundamentals of zinc are currently poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price center may be difficult to fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; for the domestic - foreign spread, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity; for the calendar spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [1][4]. - On the supply side of nickel, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, but the Jinchuan premium is strong. In terms of inventory, the inventory accumulation in China slowed down this week, and the LME inventory increased slightly. The short - term fundamentals are weak. According to the news, the Indonesian Nickel Association (a non - official organization) said that the quota plan for next year is 250 million tons (a 34% decrease compared to 2025). Although there may be a difference between the actual quota and the statement of the association, it is difficult to disprove it in the short term. From the perspective of odds, more investors are taking long positions, and the game between policy and fundamentals has intensified [7]. - In terms of stainless steel supply, steel mills maintain a high production schedule. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of cost, the price of ferronickel has stabilized slightly, and the price of ferrochrome has remained stable. In terms of inventory, the inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are stable. The overall fundamentals are weak, but the Indonesian policy has a certain motivation to support prices. The news of quota reduction by the Indonesian Nickel Association has driven a short - term price rebound [9]. - This week, lead prices rose following the macro - trend. On the supply side, the profit of primary lead drives production, and the maintenance is expected to reduce production by 10,000 - 15,000 tons. The operation rate of concentrate mines is seasonally declining, and the concentrate supply is tightening with no hope of a TC rebound; the secondary lead production has resumed, and the output has increased. Recyclers are showing the intention to support prices, and the maintenance within the month will affect 15,000 tons of production. On the demand side, the battery operation rate was at a high level this week, and the monthly electric product inventory was accumulating, with a weakening demand expectation. Since the end of September, the lead ingot market has tightened, and the supply - demand mismatch is serious. Currently, the resumption of secondary lead production has alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, but the high operation rate of battery factories makes it difficult to accumulate inventory, and downstream replenishment at low prices provides support. Lead prices are oscillating around 17,000. The willingness of secondary lead producers to sell has recovered with the rebound of lead prices, and the refined - scrap spread is - 50. Recently, the implementation of the new national standard has suppressed the consumption of two - wheeled vehicle batteries, and the procurement and sales are cold at the end of the year. This week, the battery operation rate dropped to 72%. The primary lead supply in November - December is expected to be flat. This week, the increase in secondary lead production and the maintenance of primary lead offset each other, and the lead ingot spot is still in short supply, with low inventory. The refined - scrap spread has fallen back to - 50 with the rise of lead prices, and the primary lead ingot spot has support. The five - region social inventory has continued to decline to 17,900 tons, and there is still a risk of warehouse receipt contradiction. It is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain an oscillating trend next week, with an expected range of 17,100 - 17,600. There are signs of scrap battery price support, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts and cautious operation is recommended [10][11]. - This week, tin prices oscillated upward under the influence of macro - sentiment and capital allocation. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore remains at a low level with limited rebound space. Overseas, the production in Wa State is recovering slowly due to slow commissioning of pumping equipment, but the high price recently has stimulated the export of a large amount of inventory ore. If the tin price remains high, it may also accelerate the solution of the mine water accumulation problem; the Indonesian President announced that tin ingot exports will return to normal levels in 2026, and there is a rush to export at the end of the year. The export in November is expected to exceed 6,000 tons, and the quota issue in the first quarter of next year is expected to be controversial; the temporary peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda under the mediation of the United States has alleviated the short - term risk disturbance. On the demand side, the high price is mainly supported by rigid demand, and the downstream's willingness to accept orders has significantly weakened with the rapid rise of tin prices, and the inventory is accumulating at home and abroad. In the short term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply under the stimulation of high prices, and the fundamentals show signs of marginal weakening. If there is a systematic macro - correction, the price may fluctuate greatly; in the long term, demand determines the upper price limit. Tin can be a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. 2026 is a year of significant supply recovery, and if the macro - situation is worse than expected, the price may also fluctuate greatly downward [14]. - In the industrial silicon market, a large factory in Xinjiang increased production by 2 units and currently maintains 100 units. Orient Hope has entered the maintenance period and reduced production by 2 units, the Inner Mongolia area reduced production by 4 units, and a silicon factory in Gansu increased production by 4 units. As large factories gradually enter the maintenance period, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon in December are in a balanced state, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the operation rate is low. The price trend is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [17]. - The futures price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly under the influence of factors such as the reference price switch of Tianqi Lithium and the processing fee negotiation of downstream lithium iron phosphate factories. On the raw material side, the available supply is still tight, and lithium salt producers have limited acceptance of high - priced ore, resulting in light trading. On the lithium salt side, upstream producers mainly focus on long - term contracts, and a small number of spot orders are sold at high prices, and the inventory continues to decline. On the downstream side, under the SMM settlement system, the futures price exceeds the acceptable range of material producers, and the current trading is mainly for the rigid demand of enterprises, with a small number of high - price transactions with post - pricing. Currently, the quoted price of spodumene - based electric - grade lithium carbonate is around 05 - 2000 - 05 - 1500, the actual transaction price of first - tier products is around 05 - 1500, and the second - and third - tier products are sold in large quantities at around 05 - 2200. In the short - term supply - demand situation, the actual capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate is relatively high, and both supply and demand are strong, but the demand shows signs of marginal weakening. The inventory reduction in December is expected to be maintained at 7,000 - 7,500 tons. In January, without considering upstream maintenance and the resumption of production by CATL, a month - on - month demand decline of about 8% will lead to an inventory accumulation of 2,000 - 3,000 tons [19]. Grouped Summaries Copper - This week, copper prices rose significantly, influenced by the precious metals market and the warming of risk appetite at home and abroad [1] - Domestically, the negative feedback from downstream is obvious, with the weekly operating rate of copper rods dropping seasonally and the overall social inventory accumulating rapidly [1] - Overseas, the CL spread shows a slight compression trend, and the overall idea for copper prices is to buy on dips, with an expected price range in December of $10,800 - $12,500 [1] Aluminum - In November, the import volume of primary aluminum decreased significantly, while exports increased, and domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously estimated [1] - The terminal sales of automobiles are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy is removed in 2026, but the month - on - month increase in photovoltaic installation is better than expected [1] - Aluminum ingot and product inventories are accumulating, and apparent demand is declining. The low inventory level and strong expectations can support the current high price [1] Zinc - This week, the LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a volatile trend, alleviating the overseas supply - demand contradiction [4] - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, and the domestic zinc ore supply will be marginally tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [4] - In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was officially put into production, and many smelters are under maintenance in December, with a month - on - month decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons expected [4] Nickel - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, and on the demand side, the overall demand is weak, but the Jinchuan premium is strong [7] - This week, the domestic inventory accumulation slowed down, and the LME inventory increased slightly. The short - term fundamentals are weak [7] - The Indonesian Nickel Association said that the quota plan for next year is 250 million tons (a 34% decrease compared to 2025), intensifying the game between policy and fundamentals [7] Stainless Steel - Steel mills maintain a high production schedule, and demand is mainly driven by rigid demand [9] - The price of ferronickel has stabilized slightly, and the price of ferrochrome has remained stable, with high inventory and stable warehouse receipts [9] - The overall fundamentals are weak, but the Indonesian policy has a certain motivation to support prices, driving a short - term price rebound [9] Lead - This week, lead prices rose following the macro - trend. On the supply side, primary lead production is affected by maintenance, and secondary lead production has resumed [11] - On the demand side, the battery operation rate was at a high level this week, and the monthly electric product inventory was accumulating, with a weakening demand expectation [11] - The lead ingot spot is still in short supply, with low inventory. It is expected that lead prices will oscillate next week in the range of 17,100 - 17,600 [11] Tin - This week, tin prices oscillated upward under the influence of macro - sentiment and capital allocation [14] - On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore remains at a low level, and overseas production recovery is slow but high prices stimulate inventory ore export [14] - In the short term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply, and in the long term, demand determines the upper price limit [14] Industrial Silicon - A large factory in Xinjiang increased production, Orient Hope entered the maintenance period, and the Inner Mongolia area and a Gansu factory adjusted production [17] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate with the cost [17] - In the long term, the over - capacity is still high, and the price trend is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price continued to rise significantly under the influence of factors such as the reference price switch of Tianqi Lithium and downstream processing fee negotiation [19] - On the raw material side, trading is light, and on the lithium salt side, inventory is declining, with downstream trading mainly for rigid demand [19] - In the short - term, both supply and demand are strong but demand shows signs of marginal weakening, and inventory reduction in December and accumulation in January are expected [19]
永安期货有色早报-20251231
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-12-31 01:51