LPG早报-20260105

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and then impact LPG prices; the overseas LPG market remains supported in the near - term. The domestic LPG market shows an over - valued situation between domestic and foreign markets but a low basis. The feedback of poor PDH profits may occur, and the decline in the premium indicates a bearish driver. Future attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Price Changes - This week, the domestic LPG market fluctuated. It rose on Wednesday due to the high - opening of CP and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 month - spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 month - spread was -184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+3) [1]. - Domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4250 (-20); in East China, it was 4376 (-8), and in South China, it was 4590 (+80) [1]. - The overseas market rose. The official January CP prices opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively [1]. Price Spread and Premium Changes - The PG - FEI spread reached 85 (+25). The East China propane arrival premium was 66 (-18). The January FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively [1]. - Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPI spread was -15 (a month - on - month decrease of 5.5) [1].