《黑色》日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to remain range - bound. The current production cuts limit the downward drive, but weak demand expectations for the May contracts suppress the upside potential. The upward price elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will gradually transition from a supply - demand surplus to a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory restricts the upside of prices, while the expectation of steel mills' restocking at low inventory levels provides support. Short - term focus is on the trend of hot metal production and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and long - term attention is on negotiation situations [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coke, the supply - demand situation has weakened. The futures price has fallen in advance, and the spot price is gradually adjusting. It is recommended to short the Coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, the overall inventory is moderately increasing, and it is also recommended to short on rallies [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and the price lacks upward momentum. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5650 - 5900 yuan. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance of manganese elements. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 5700 - 6000 yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions remained unchanged on January 5, 2026. Rebar futures contracts declined slightly, and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also showed some drops [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices were stable. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 8 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 20 yuan [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production remained at 226.5 tons. The production of five major steel products increased by 2.3% to 815.2 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.1% to 1232.2 tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed slightly, and the basis of 05 contracts and price spreads between different contracts also showed certain fluctuations [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 1.7%, and the global shipment volume increased by 6.1%. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly production decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 1.1%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6% [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Price and Spread - Coke prices generally declined, with the Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) dropping by 3.2%. Coking coal prices were relatively stable, with the Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remaining unchanged [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production remained stable, and the iron water production also showed no change. The supply of coking coal faced pressure, and the demand for coke was weak due to steel mill losses and maintenance [7]. Inventory - The overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased moderately. The coke total inventory increased by 0.3%, and the coking coal inventory also showed different degrees of increase in various sectors [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 1.4%, and the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 0.4%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions were mostly stable [8]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions changed slightly, and the production profits remained relatively stable [8]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production and demand remained stable, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. The demand for both was affected by the steel market [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [8].