《能源化工》日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Market sentiment has declined, and the overall fundamentals are weak. Hold short positions around 15,700 [1]. Pure Benzene - The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5,300 - 5,600 [4]. Styrene - The rebound space is limited. EB02/03 should be treated bearishly above 6,800, and short the EB processing margin on rallies [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the price rebound space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the inventory inflection point. - Glass: The upward space of the disk is limited, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening of demand [5]. Methanol - The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to destocking in the first quarter of the next year, which will support the 05 contract [7][8][9]. LLDPE and PP - PP: The pressure on the 05 contract is still large if there are few planned maintenance; PE: The overall pressure is still large in January [13]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chip - PX: The upstream PX price is expected to adjust before the festival. It is recommended to go long at a low level in the medium - term and conduct positive spread trading for the 5 - 9 month spread. - PTA: It follows raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to trade in the high - level range of 4,800 - 5,200 and conduct positive spread trading for the 5 - 9 month spread. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at a high level near 4,000 for EG2605 and conduct relevant spread trading. - Short - fiber: The absolute price follows raw material fluctuations. Short the processing margin on rallies. - Bottle chip: It follows the cost side. Short the processing margin on rallies [14]. LPG No specific overall view is provided, just price and inventory data. Crude Oil - The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. Continued attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [18]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Natural Rubber - Spot Prices and Basis: The prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while the basis of whole milk and non - standard prices changed significantly [1]. - Inter - monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1000.00%, and the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads increased [1]. - Fundamental Data: The production of some countries decreased in November, and the tire production and export increased [1]. - Inventory Changes: The bonded area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: The prices of some upstream products remained stable, and the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha increased [4]. - Benzene - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed slightly, and the processing margins of some products improved [4]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased, and the operating rates of some products changed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of glass in different regions remained unchanged, and the 01 contract price decreased slightly [5]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of soda ash in different regions decreased, and the 01 and 05 contract prices decreased [5]. - Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data: The operating rate and production of soda ash decreased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased [5]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: The prices of methanol contracts and spot prices changed slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [7]. - Inventory: The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased [8]. - Operating Rates: The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve [9]. LLDPE and PP - Prices and Spreads: The contract prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and the spreads and basis changed [13]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory of LLDPE and PP decreased [13]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of LLDPE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [13]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chip - Upstream Prices and Spreads: The prices of upstream products such as PX and ethylene changed, and the spreads changed [14]. - PTA - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of PTA and related spreads changed, and the processing margins improved [14]. - MEG - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of MEG and related spreads changed, and the inventory increased [14]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: The inventory and operating rates of polyester products changed [14]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: The prices of LPG contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads and basis decreased [16]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: The refinery storage ratio of LPG increased, and the port inventory decreased [16]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [18]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of refined oil products decreased, and the spreads changed [18].