《农产品》日报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may test the support at 4050 ringgit, and there is a risk of further decline. In the Chinese market, it may start a downward trend. If it effectively breaks below 8500 yuan, a new round of decline may be triggered [1]. - For soybean oil, the decrease in the US bio - fuel soybean oil consumption in October dragged down the CBOT market. In the Chinese market, the spot basis quote is supported in the short - term, but the increase in oil mill profit weakens their price - holding intention, and the basis quote will fluctuate slightly [1]. - Rapeseed oil futures are relatively resistant to decline due to inventory reduction and postponed startup plans. The market is mixed with positive and negative factors, and the spot price follows the futures, with the basis quote maintaining a high - level consolidation [1]. 2. Cotton - The cotton market lacks clear negative factors. The downstream yarn market has not fully recovered. The improvement in US cotton exports and the weakening dollar boost the price, but the supply is still loose, and global consumption is weak. The short - term cotton price will maintain a strong - side oscillation [2]. 3. Sugar - Internationally, the raw sugar price is under pressure due to the expected supply surplus, showing a weakening oscillation. In the Chinese market, the price is supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking, but the expected increase in production limits the upward movement, and it is expected to maintain a low - level weakening oscillation [3]. 4. Red Dates - The raw material acquisition of Xinjiang red dates is almost finished, with most processed inland. The market sentiment is weak, and the upward momentum of the futures is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction [4]. 5. Apples - Apple prices are polarized. The good - quality apple price is firm, while the ordinary and inferior apples have few transactions. The inventory pressure is high. The market is in a game between the scarcity of delivery fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. If the Spring Festival consumption does not improve, the price may fall after the Spring Festival [9]. 6. Corn - During the holiday, the corn supply in the producing areas is light, and the price is stable with some fluctuations. The overall supply is average, but there is selling pressure before the Spring Festival. The demand side has some support, and the policy supplements the supply. In the short - term, the price is supported, but there may be a callback in January [13]. 7. Pigs - The spot pig price is strengthening. The seasonal demand for curing and the reduction in group supply, along with farmers' reluctance to sell, support the market. The futures may be affected by the expected increase in supply in January, with a potential for a callback [15]. 8. Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillation pattern, with weak market transactions. The domestic spot market remains loose. The cost of the 05 contract is under pressure, and the supply in the first quarter is uncertain. The soybean meal price will oscillate in the short - term [18]. 9. Eggs - In January, the laying - hen存栏 may decrease, relieving the supply pressure. The demand will gradually increase during the Spring Festival stocking period. The egg price is expected to rise gradually but will maintain a low - level oscillation due to limited supply reduction [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - Price Changes: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained at 8410 yuan on December 31, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.20% to 7862 yuan. The basis increased by 3.01% to 548 yuan [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan, the futures price of P2605 decreased by 0.85% to 8584 yuan, and the basis increased by 108.82% to 6 yuan. The import profit decreased by 31.17% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.99% to 10030 yuan, the futures price of OI605 increased by 0.01% to 9087 yuan, and the basis decreased by 9.67% [1]. - Spread Changes: - The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread increased by 6.56% to 130 yuan, the palm oil 05 - 09 spread decreased by 1.61% to 122 yuan, and the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread decreased by 11.94% [1]. 2. Cotton - Futures Market: - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.17% to 14585 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.20% to 14760 yuan/ton. The ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.45% to 64.01 cents/pound [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.94% to - 175 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest decreased by 1.81% [2]. - Spot Market: - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.21% to 15424 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.19% to 15585 yuan/ton [2]. - Industry Situation: - The inventory in warehouses increased by 14.2%, the industrial inventory increased by 4.7%, and the import volume increased by 33.3%. The textile industry's inventory decreased by 500.0% year - on - year [2]. 3. Sugar - Futures Market: - The price of sugar 2605 decreased by 0.13% to 5252 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 decreased by 0.17% to 5266 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 2.34% to 14.60 cents/pound [3]. - The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11.76% to - 14 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest decreased by 2.34% [3]. - Spot Market: - The Nanning price remained at 5350 yuan/ton, and the Kunming price decreased by 0.29% to 5210 yuan/ton [3]. - Industry Situation: - The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24%, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53%. The Guangxi cumulative production decreased by 73.87%, and the monthly sales decreased by 68.63% [3]. 4. Red Dates - Futures Market: - The price of red dates 2601 decreased by 2.15% to 9085 yuan/ton, the price of red dates 2605 (main contract) decreased by 0.61% to 8962 yuan/ton [4]. - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 54.72% to 120 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8.16% to - 265 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot Market: - The Cangzhou special - grade price remained at 9520 yuan/ton, the first - grade price decreased by 1.20% to 8200 yuan/ton, and the second - grade price decreased by 2.78% to 7000 yuan/ton [4]. 5. Apples - Futures Market: - The price of apple 2605 (main contract) decreased by 0.87% to 9120 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 8.00% to - 920 yuan [6]. - The 1 - 5 spread increased by 81.22% to 830 yuan, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 2.14% to 1004 yuan [6]. - Industry Situation: - The arrivals at the Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao fruit wholesale markets decreased. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.41% to 733.56 tons [6]. 6. Corn - Corn: - The price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.18% to 2226 yuan/ton. The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price remained at 2330 yuan/ton [13]. - The basis increased by 4.00% to 104 yuan. The 3 - 5 spread decreased by 11.54% to - 29 yuan [13]. - Corn Starch: - The price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.44% to 2515 yuan/ton [13]. - The basis increased by 25.00% to 55 yuan. The 3 - 5 spread decreased by 11.11% to - 50 yuan [13]. 7. Pigs - Futures Market: - The price of the main - contract pig 2605 decreased by 0.08% to 12175 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread increased by 3.90% to - 370 yuan [15]. - Spot Market: - The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions increased. The sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 0.39%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 73.41% [15]. 8. Meal - Soybean Meal: - The Jiangsu spot price decreased by 0.64% to 3100 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 remained at 2749 yuan. The basis decreased by 5.39% to 351 yuan [18]. - The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - date crushing profit increased by 33.1% to 173 yuan [18]. - Rapeseed Meal: - The Jiangsu spot price remained at 2430 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 remained at 2365 yuan [18]. - The Canadian 1 - month shipping - date crushing profit decreased by 8.61% to 573 yuan [18]. 9. Eggs - Futures Market: - The price of the egg 03 contract decreased by 0.37% to 2951 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 04 contract decreased by 0.89% to 3214 yuan/500KG [20]. - The 3 - 4 spread increased by 6.41% to - 263 yuan [20]. - Industry Situation: - The egg - laying chicken feed - to - egg ratio decreased by 2.08% to 2.35, and the breeding profit increased by 13.96% to - 22.70 yuan/feather [20].