《有色》日报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has fluctuated recently, causing significant volatility in tin prices. Operation should be cautious, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and supply - side recovery [2]. Zinc - The lower support for zinc prices comes from the tightening domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the upper pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and changes in refined zinc inventory [5]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but in the short term, prices are over - estimated irrationally, yet may remain strong due to high market speculation. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [7]. Nickel - Recently, the nickel market has been driven by Indonesia's tightening expectations, but the actual fundamentals are weak, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to potential price corrections [10]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel show slightly eased supply pressure and strengthened cost support, but demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to news from the ore end and downstream inventory replenishment [12]. Alumina - The market still faces severe oversupply pressure, and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The key to a trend - based rebound lies in whether there are specific capacity control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. Aluminum - Strong macro and policy expectations support aluminum prices, but weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will limit the upside. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost is the main driving factor for the price of aluminum alloy. The market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand being weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain largely unchanged, with a slight increase in supply expected. The downstream demand has certain resilience but weakens in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and price volatility may intensify [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [17]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures are oscillating at a high level. In January, demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to production cuts and price adjustment acceptance [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.91%, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 142.86%. The import loss increased by 9.86%, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - Fundamentals: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. Exchange inventories decreased [2]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased slightly by 0.09%, and the import loss decreased by 5.78%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [5]. - Fundamentals: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and in November, exports increased significantly by 402.59%. Social inventories decreased [5]. Copper - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.23%, and the import loss decreased by 46.83%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [7]. - Fundamentals: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and in November, imports decreased by 3.90%. Social inventories increased [7]. Nickel - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 3.77%, and the import profit increased by 175.35%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [10]. - Fundamentals: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and in November, imports increased by 30.08%. Some inventories increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [12]. - Fundamentals: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports increased by 13.18%. Social inventories decreased [12]. Alumina - Price and Spread: Alumina prices remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - Fundamentals: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97%. Some inventories increased [14]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.26%, the import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - Fundamentals: In December, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased, and demand weakened. Social inventories increased [14]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.67%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - Fundamentals: In November, the production of regeneration and primary aluminum alloy increased, and some inventories decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.42%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [16]. - Fundamentals: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.50%. Inventories decreased [16]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Spread: The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [17]. - Fundamentals: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15%, and exports increased by 21.78%. Some inventories increased slightly [17]. Polysilicon - Price and Spread: N - type polysilicon prices increased slightly, and some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - Fundamentals: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and net exports increased significantly. Inventories increased [18].