原木期货日报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The current log futures market has small fluctuations. With low inventory and an expected decrease in future shipments, some spot prices have been adjusted upwards. However, the weak demand limits the overall upward adjustment space. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction and limited upward and downward drivers, so the futures market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 31, the price of log 2601 was 737.0, down 19.0 or -2.51% from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.0, unchanged; log 2605 was 786.5, down 1.0 or -0.13%. The 01 - 03 spread was -39.0, down 19.0; the 01 - 05 spread was -49.5, down 18.0. The 03 - contract basis was -36.0, unchanged; the 01 - contract basis was 3.0, up 19.0 [2] - Spot prices of various types of logs at Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on December 31 compared to the previous day. The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A (CFR price) and spruce 11.8 - meter (CFR price) also remained unchanged [2] - On January 4, the RMB - to - US - dollar exchange rate was 6.971, down 0.01 from the previous day; the import theoretical cost was 768.57 yuan, down 1.25 yuan [2] Supply - In November, the port throughput was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters or -6.01% from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, down 5 or -9.26% [2] - As of December 26, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 254 million cubic meters, down 6 million cubic meters or -2.31% from the previous week. In Shandong, the inventory was 52.1 million cubic meters, down 9.4 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it was 61.52 million cubic meters, down 15.30% [2][3] Demand - As of December 26, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 5.83 million cubic meters, down 0.49 million cubic meters or -8% from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.34 million cubic meters, down 0.55 million cubic meters or -16%; in Jiangsu, it was 2.52 million cubic meters, down 0.08 million cubic meters or -3% [3] Forecast of Arrival - From December 29, 2025, to January 5, 2026, 15 ships of New Zealand softwood logs are expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, an increase of 6 ships or 67% week - on - week. The total arrival volume is 51.05 million cubic meters, an increase of 20.45 million cubic meters or 66.8% week - on - week [3]