农产品早报-20260105

Group 1: Corn - The market sentiment is relatively weak due to the targeted auction policy, with prices in the southern ports declining. However, farmers in the production areas are still reluctant to sell, resulting in limited supply and firm spot prices in the origin[1]. - The basis has strengthened recently, and the trade from the origin to the port remains inverted. With low downstream inventories, post - New Year seasonal restocking may drive up corn prices[1]. - In the long - term, focus on structural changes, import policies, and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap[1]. Group 2: Starch - In the short - term, the slowdown in deep - processing destocking and weak downstream restocking have led to weak starch quotes. The industry is expected to use price - for - volume strategies to destock before the Spring Festival[2]. - Due to limited raw material cost reduction, the price adjustment space for starch is also limited. After New Year's Day, with the year - end stocking season, starch prices are expected to rise slightly[2]. - In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends, and post - season inventory destocking will determine starch pricing[2]. Group 3: Sugar - In the short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar has decreased, and the futures pricing can refer to domestic sugar production costs and spot prices[3]. - In the long - term, if the global sugar surplus increases, the futures price will seek the cost of out - of - quota imports[3]. - Attention should be paid to weather risks and policy changes[3]. Group 4: Cotton - The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. Future consumption is the main focus[4]. - With the expansion of domestic textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies after the Sino - US meeting, cotton demand is expected to improve next year, making long - term long positions suitable[4]. Group 5: Eggs - The inflection point of egg inventory has occurred, but the base is still high. The speed of inventory decline depends on the chicken culling rhythm[10]. - If chicken culling accelerates, it will speed up capacity reduction. If the spot price remains low before Laba Festival, farmers may cull chickens, which is beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter[10]. Group 6: Apples - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production areas is still light. Traders are less interested in purchasing from farmers, and low - price fruits are the main ones sold[15]. - High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of medium and low - quality apples have weakened. The downstream sales have improved slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly[15]. - In the short - term, the futures price is expected to remain high and volatile. In the medium - term, due to competition from other fruits, the overall pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term[15]. Group 7: Pigs - After the New Year's Day holiday, demand has decreased, and the short - term sentiment has weakened. There may still be a supply - demand mismatch in January[15]. - Capacity reduction has improved long - term sentiment, but the improvement of long - term expectations depends on further production and inventory reduction in the near - term. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies[15].