芳烃橡胶早报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the price has strengthened significantly recently. However, downstream filament profits have declined substantially, increasing the possibility of accelerated production cuts. Although the long - term pattern has not completely reversed, the probability of falling short of expectations has risen, and the short - term upside space may be limited. One should wait for downstream price pass - through [1]. - For MEG, the domestic supply is expected to increase steadily while overseas maintenance is increasing. The overall inventory accumulation will continue, and the absolute inventory is not low. The market pattern is expected to remain weak, and one should focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the domestic demand side is gradually entering the off - season, the spot profit has been significantly compressed after the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the futures processing margin has remained low. Considering the relatively low absolute inventory, the room for further weakening is limited, and one should pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs PTA - Market Situation: Some PTA devices have restarted, the operating rate has increased month - on - month, the polyester load has rebounded, the inventory has decreased slightly, the basis has strengthened, and the spot processing margin has improved. The domestic operating rate of PX has increased, and there has also been a slight increase overseas. The PXN has shrunk month - on - month, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits have weakened month - on - month. The aromatics price spread between the US and Asia has continued to shrink [1]. - Price and Basis: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions for 2605 is - 47 [1]. - Device Changes: The 2.5 - million - ton device in Dushan has restarted, and the 2.5 - million - ton device of Shandong Weilian has increased its load [1]. MEG - Market Situation: The domestic oil - based operating rate has increased, and overseas maintenance has continued to increase. The port inventory has accumulated at the beginning of next week, and the arrival forecast during the week remains stable. The basis remains weak, and the coal - based profit has fluctuated at a low level [1]. - Price and Basis: The basis of MEG spot transactions for 05 is around - 142 [1]. - Device Changes: The 200,000 - ton device of Guangxi Huayi has restarted, and the 200,000 - ton device of Henan Coal Industry has been under maintenance [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Market Situation: Some devices in Zhejiang have restarted, and the operating rate has slightly increased to 97.6%. The sales volume has weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the operating rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, and the finished product inventory has accumulated, with the profit improving month - on - month [1]. - Price and Basis: The spot price is around 6,550, and the market basis for 02 is around - 100 [1]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: There have been daily and weekly changes in the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, etc. For example, the daily change in the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber is 0, and the weekly change is - 20 [1]. - Spread Changes: There have been changes in various spreads, such as the spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract, the spread between NR main contract and US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, etc. [1]. - Inventory Situation: The national explicit inventory remains stable [1]. Styrene and Related Products - Price Changes: There have been daily changes in the prices of styrene, pure benzene, and related products. For example, the daily change in the price of styrene in Jiangsu is 5 [1]. - Profit Changes: There have been changes in the production profits of ABS, EPS, PS, etc. For example, the daily change in the domestic profit of ABS is - 10 [1]. - Operating Rate Changes: There have been fluctuations in the operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, etc. [1]