大越期货玻璃早报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The production profit of glass has limited recovery, cold - repairs have increased leading to further supply contraction, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and the inventory is at a historically high level for the same period [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1087 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 904 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 183 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 904 yuan/ton, which is flat compared to the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has limited recovery, and there is an expectation of further cold - repairs in the industry due to low production profit [2][4]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 218, with an operating rate of 73.89%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 154,500 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level for the same period [22][24]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period, and the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, causing traders and processors to be cautious and mainly consume the original glass inventory [28][4]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 56.866 million weight boxes, a 3.00% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][44]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2017, the production was 53.54 million tons, the consumption was 52.29 million tons, and the net import ratio was - 1.734%. In 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [45].