Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. The copper price hit a new high again and fluctuated significantly at a high level, and attention should be paid to position control [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. - There are geopolitical disturbances in Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel, the Fed may cut interest rates, and the mine end production increase is slow with a production reduction event in the Freeport Indonesia mining area. On the other hand, the US comprehensive tariff may exceed expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, and December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range; neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 99,280, basis is 1,190, at a premium to futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: On December 31, copper inventory decreased by 2,100 to 145,325 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons compared with last week; neutral [3]. - Disk: Closing price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward; bullish [3]. - Main position: Main net short position decreased; bearish [3]. - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia has fermented, the copper price hit a new high again and fluctuated significantly at a high level, and attention should be paid to position control [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply [4]. - Bearish factors: US comprehensive tariff may exceed expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory: Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - Processing fee: Processing fee has declined [16]. Supply and Demand Balance - 2024 will have a slight surplus, and 2025 will be in a tight balance [20]. - China's annual supply and demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply and demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22].
大越期货沪铜早报-20260105
Da Yue Qi Huo·2026-01-05 02:23