大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260105

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated January 5, 2026, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today, with both facing an oversupply situation, neutral industry inventories, and weak downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the November 2025 production plan and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. The US military's actions in Venezuela are expected to have limited impact on domestic crude oil and chemical products. The demand for agricultural films is continuously weak, and packaging film enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6350 (+10), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -122, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.9%, indicating a bearish outlook [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 39.8 million tons (-9.3), which is neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish trend [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with an oversupply situation in the fundamentals, neutral industry inventory, and weak downstream demand [4] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in the macro - aspect. The PDH maintenance rate has started to increase. The demand for plastic woven products is mainly based on rigid demand, and the demand for pipes has generally declined. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6270 (+20), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -78, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.2%, indicating a bearish outlook [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 49.1 million tons (-4.3), which is neutral [7] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [7] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish trend [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to rebound and be volatile today, with an oversupply situation in the fundamentals, neutral industry inventory, weak downstream demand, and an increasing PDH maintenance rate [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5 [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, and the import dependence has decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906 [16]