永安期货有色早报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has declined significantly due to high prices, and the support near key price points should be noted. In the future, macro and industrial factors need to be monitored [1]. - For aluminum, domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption show signs of weakening, but low inventory levels and strong expectations support the current high prices [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals due to the Indonesian nickel association's quota plan [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but the price rebounds in the short term due to the Indonesian policy [7]. - For lead, the lead price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - For tin, the short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026 [12]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and the medium - to - long - term price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15][16]. - For lithium carbonate, the downstream positive electrode production is lower than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy supports the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand shows signs of improvement [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased by 45, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 408, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,037 [1]. - Market Outlook: The domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has declined significantly due to high prices. Attention should be paid to the support near key price points. In the future, monitor domestic risk appetite, Fed's actions, the contraction of the New York spread, and the maintenance of high premiums in non - US regions [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 290. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1. The SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1]. - Market Outlook: The import of primary aluminum decreased in November, while the export of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and semi - finished products increased. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected. The automobile terminal sales are poor, but the photovoltaic installation volume has rebounded better than expected. The inventory of aluminum ingots and products has increased, and the apparent demand has decreased [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 20, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 40, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 40. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [2]. - Market Outlook: The LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a volatile trend, alleviating the overseas supply - demand contradiction. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the output of some smelters has decreased. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 3,300, the Jinchuan premium increased by 350, and the Russian nickel premium remained unchanged [3]. - Market Outlook: The short - term fundamentals are weak. The Indonesian nickel association's quota plan has increased the motivation to go long, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals [4]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 150, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 120 [7]. - Market Outlook: The supply is at a high level, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost is relatively stable, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a certain price - supporting motivation [7]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot premium increased by 10, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased by 25, and the 1 secondary lead price difference remained unchanged. The social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [8]. - Market Outlook: The lead price followed the macro trend to rise. The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated to some extent, but the battery factory's high - level production makes it difficult to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot import profit increased by 16,004.33, the spot export profit decreased by 14,232.80, the tin position decreased by 6,427, the LME C - 3M decreased by 5, the LME inventory increased by 90, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - Market Outlook: The tin price fluctuated and declined. The short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026 [12]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 55, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 55, the 553 East China basis increased by 55, the 553 Tianjin basis increased by 55, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 204 [15]. - Market Outlook: A large factory in Xinjiang reduced production. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and the medium - to - long - term price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 500, the main contract basis increased by 500, the near - month contract basis increased by 40, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 790 [19]. - Market Outlook: The downstream positive electrode production is lower than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy supports the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand shows signs of improvement [19].