大越期货白糖早报-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season, with different institutions having varying surplus estimates [4][9]. - The domestic sugar market's main contract 05 has had a strong short - term rebound, but the upward momentum has weakened, and the market may oscillate and decline for adjustment, with attention on whether there is support around 5200 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market, with estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons [4][9]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37% [4]. - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the import of syrup and pre - mixed powder totaled 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4][9]. - The 2026/27 Brazilian sugar production may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, and the US cola changing its formula to use sucrose are positive factors; while the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus, low international sugar prices, and open import profit margins are negative factors [7][9]. - Basis - The Liuzhou spot price is 5400, and the basis for the 05 contract is 142, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory - As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is a negative factor [6]. - Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Main Position - The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, showing a bearish outlook [6]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecast by Institutions - StoneX predicts a 3.7 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 season, due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth [31]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus, with global sugar production expected to increase by 3.15% and consumption by only 0.6% [31]. - Datagro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, with the global supply expected to shift from shortage to surplus [31]. - Sugar Industry Data in China (2023/24 - 2025/26) - The sugar - crop sowing area, harvest area, and sugar production are expected to show certain trends. For example, the sugar - production in 2025/26 is expected to be 11.7 million tons [33]. - Import volume is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025/26, consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is expected to be 820,000 tons [33]. - The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton in 2025/26 [33]. 5. Position Data No information provided.