大越期货贵金属早报-20260105

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: January 5, 2026 [1] - Report Author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - Gold: Influenced by geopolitical conflicts, but there is still pressure from commodity index adjustment, and the gold price remains volatile. The Shanghai gold premium has expanded and will make up for the increase. [4] - Silver: The silver price rebounded significantly, with strong sentiment and support under geopolitical concerns, but the support may be short - lived, and it is mainly in a volatile state. The Shanghai silver premium has expanded and will make up for the morning increase. [5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Gold: The CME raised margins again. During the New Year's Day, the US air - raided Venezuela, and the gold price rebounded in the morning. US and European stock markets had different performances, US bond yields mostly rose, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.02% to $4341.90 per ounce. [4] - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price rebounded significantly in the morning. COMEX silver futures rose 2.35% to $72.27 per ounce. [5] 2. Daily Tips - Today's focus includes China's December RatingDog service industry PMI, the euro - zone's January Sentix investor confidence index, the US December ISM manufacturing index, and an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on the US military action against Venezuela. [4] 3. Today's Focus - 09:45: China's December RatingDog service industry PMI [15] - 15:30: Switzerland's November real retail sales [15] - 17:30: Euro - zone's January Sentix investor confidence index, UK's November central bank mortgage approvals [15] - 23:00: US December ISM manufacturing index, emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on the US military action against Venezuela [15] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold - Fundamental situation: Neutral. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and margin increases. [4] - Basis: - 5.09, spot at a discount to futures, bearish. [4] - Inventory: Gold futures warehouse receipts are 97,704 kg, unchanged, bearish. [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, bullish. [4] - Main position: The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, bullish. [4] - Silver - Fundamental situation: Neutral. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and margin increases. [5] - Basis: - 30, spot at a discount to futures, neutral. [5] - Inventory: Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40,985 kg, bullish. [5] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, bullish. [5] - Main position: The main net position is long, and the main long position is increasing, bullish. [5] 5. Position Data - Gold - On January 2, 2026, the long position volume was 190,383, a decrease of 6,317 or 3.21% compared to January 1. The short position volume was 81,508, a decrease of 4,693 or 5.44%. The net position was 108,875, a decrease of 1,624 or 1.47%. [31] - Silver - On January 2, 2026, the long position volume was 321,934, a decrease of 21,801 or 6.34% compared to January 1. The short position volume was 265,911, a decrease of 9,418 or 3.42%. The net position was 56,023, a decrease of 12,383 or 18.10%. [34]