大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view suggests that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2602) are expected to oscillate and weaken. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc move in an oscillating and falling trend, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. Technically, the price is above the moving - average system with strong support, the short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the strong area, while the trend indicator is declining, with the long - position strength decreasing and the short - position strength also decreasing, but the long - position strength has an expanding advantage [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1193500 tons, consumption was 1229200 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10363200 tons, consumption was 10736900 tons, with a supply shortage of 373700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1163300 tons, and from January to September, it was 9964700 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price is 23450, and the basis is +70, which is a neutral factor [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On January 2, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 106325 tons compared to the previous day. On December 31, the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 32 tons to 42419 tons, which is a neutral factor [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating and falling trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main net position is short, and short positions increased, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On December 31, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 254315 lots, with a trading value of 2964739.33. The total open interest was 195442 lots, a decrease of 3790 lots [3]. 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On December 31, the price of 0 zinc in different regions: in Australia, it was 23400 - 23500 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, 23150 - 23250 yuan/ton; in Tianhuang, 23250 - 23350 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, 23390 - 23490 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 Inventory Statistics - From December 22 to December 31, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets first decreased and then increased. Compared with December 25, the total inventory decreased by 0.28 tons, and compared with December 29, it increased by 0.32 tons [5]. 3.9 Warehouse Receipt Report - On December 31, the total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange were 42419 tons, an increase of 32 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 298 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 330 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory - On January 2, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 106325 tons, with a registered warehouse receipt of 97925 tons and a cancelled warehouse receipt of 8400 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 7.90% [8]. 3.11 Zinc Concentrate Price - On January 4, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions were mostly 20200 - 20300 yuan/ton, except for 19700 yuan/ton in Chifeng [10]. 3.12 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On December 31, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 20 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 23030 to 24030 yuan/ton [13]. 3.13 Refined Zinc Production - In November 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 496600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 18.48%. The production was 4.93% lower than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 69.45%. The planned production in December was 477500 tons [16]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On January 4, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% - grade was mostly 1400 - 1600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% - grade processing fee was 50 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 3.15 Futures Exchange Member Trading and Position Ranking - On December 31, the total trading volume of zinc futures by members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 254621 lots, an increase of 26512 lots. The total long - position volume was 57969 lots, a decrease of 4981 lots, and the total short - position volume was 62972 lots, a decrease of 3241 lots [21].