大越期货油脂早报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the month-end inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production reduction season. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,200, with a basis of 338, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply will increase as it enters the production increase season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,600, with a basis of -16, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The same MPOB report situation, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production increase season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,800, with a basis of 713, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]