供需两淡，菜粕维持震荡（菜粕周报12.29-12.31）-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, the entry into the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, and the influence of soybean meal trends [8]. - Rapeseed meal futures will fluctuate within the range of 2300 - 2500 for the RM2605 contract, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. For options, selling out - of - the - money put options is suggested [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal oscillated and declined, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The market returned to a volatile state, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal entered the off - season, and low inventory supported the market. Due to the uncertainty in China - Canada trade consultations, the market would maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short - term [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season at the end of the year. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Although it is the harvesting and exporting stage of Canadian rapeseed, the China - Canada trade issue has reduced the short - term export and domestic supply expectation [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and an import deposit of 75.8% was imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, and it depends on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production increased this year, with the production in Canada higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic aquaculture demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: Rapeseed arrivals increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [19]. - Oil mill processing and inventory: The oil mill's rapeseed processing volume remained at zero. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills and rapeseed meal inventory were both at low levels [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell, and spot prices fluctuated accordingly, with the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level [33]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [31]. 3.5 Position Data The main players switched from long to short positions, and funds flowed out, indicating a bearish signal [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal returned to a volatile state affected by soybean meal trends. Due to the uncertainty in China - Canada trade relations, it will maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short - term [42]. - The KDJ indicator crossed at a high level, and the market is in a technical consolidation stage. The indicator at a medium - high level limits the room for further rebound [42]. - The MACD oscillated and rebounded at a low level, with a short - term technical rebound and the green energy turning red. The subsequent trend depends on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal trends [42]. 3.7 Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The growth and harvesting weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed, domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, the rapeseed meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].