大越期货菜粕早报-20260105

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2340 - 2400. Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the current off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, it will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in a range - bound oscillation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the price. The short - term price is affected by soybean meal [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply shortage expected in the spot market and decreasing demand suppressing the price. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply. The global rapeseed production has increased this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has an impact on commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors: The off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 23 to December 31, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3106 to 3146, and the trading volume ranged from 7.46 to 290,000 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2520 and 2560, with zero trading volume. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2520 and 2560. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at zero during this period [13][15][17]. 5. Position Data - The main position has changed from long to short, and the funds have flowed out [9].