大越期货豆粕早报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Soybean Meal Viewpoint - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral due to the interaction between the decline of US soybeans, demand improvement, and mixed news. The basis is bullish, inventory is bearish, the price trend on the disk is bearish, the main - position short orders are decreasing with capital inflow (bearish), and the short - term outlook remains oscillating [9]. 2.2. Soybean Viewpoint - Soybean A2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4180 - 4280. The market is neutral as domestic soybeans are affected by the execution of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the price trend on the disk is neutral, the main - position short orders are decreasing with capital inflow (bearish), and the domestic soybean price is supported at the bottom but also suppressed by import volume and domestic yield [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Daily Hints - Soybean meal M2605: 2720 - 2780 range, neutral; basis is bullish, inventory is bearish, disk is bearish, main - position is bearish, short - term oscillation [9]. - Soybean A2605: 4180 - 4280 range, neutral; basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, disk is neutral, main - position is bearish, short - term affected by multiple factors [11]. 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The domestic import soybean arrival volume decreased in December, and the soybean meal market returned to range oscillation due to factors such as soybean inventory, demand, and trade negotiations [13]. 3.3. Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Preliminary China - US trade agreement, no pressure on domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in US and South American soybean - growing regions [14]. - Bearish factors: High domestic import soybean arrival volume in December, and expected high yield of South American soybeans [15]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - Bearish factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased domestic procurement, and new domestic soybean production increase [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price and Transaction Data - From December 23 to 31, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3106 - 3146 yuan, and the daily trading volume ranged from 7.46 - 290,000 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was relatively stable, and there was no trading volume during this period. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17]. - From December 24 to 31, the prices of soybean futures (including bean - 1 and bean - 2) and soybean meal futures fluctuated, and the prices of corresponding spot products also changed accordingly [19]. 3.4.2. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory from 2015 - 2024 [33]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in harvest area, output, import volume, consumption, and inventory from 2015 - 2024 [34]. 3.4.3. Planting and Harvesting Progress - In 2023/24, the sowing and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [35]. - In 2024, the sowing, growing, and harvesting progress of US soybeans is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [36][37][38][39]. - In 2024/25 and 2025/26, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [40][41][43][44]. 3.4.4. USDA Supply - Demand Report - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show changes in planting area, yield, output, end - of - period inventory, and other data of US soybeans, as well as the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [45]. 3.5. Position Data - No information provided in the content.