大越期货生猪期货早报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand this week, with short - term price fluctuations and a mid - term range - bound pattern. The price of live pigs is expected to rise first and then fall, remaining within a certain range. The LH2603 contract is expected to oscillate between 11,600 and 12,000 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals suggest that supply of pigs and pork will increase due to secondary fattening and demand for cured meat. Demand may improve slightly but remains pessimistic overall. The market is expected to have a short - term upward trend and mid - term range - bound movement. Attention should be paid to the monthly slaughter rhythm of large farms and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The overall view is neutral [10]. - The basis shows that the national average spot price is 12,670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2603 contract is 875 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [10]. - Inventory data as of September 30 shows that the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year increase; the sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a 0.01% month - on - month increase and 0.66% year - on - year decrease, suggesting a bearish signal [10]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards, which is a bullish sign [10]. - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [10]. - The short - term outlook is that the supply and demand of live pigs will increase, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall, remaining within a range, with the LH2603 contract oscillating between 11,600 and 12,000 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the approaching peak season, with an increase in secondary fattening in the south and a decrease in slaughter. The supply is expected to increase, and the spot price is likely to rebound in the short term and remain range - bound in the mid - term [12]. - With the arrival of the demand for cured meat at the end of the year, the pig market is entering a stage of high supply and demand. However, the short - term price increase may be limited, and the price may fall back to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The pig farming profit has shifted from losses to small fluctuations, but still remains in the red. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased in the short term, supporting the short - term price of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs has stopped falling and stabilized, and the futures price is expected to rise in the short term and remain range - bound in the mid - term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the entry of the domestic pig supply into the peak season at the end of the year and the limited potential for further decline in the domestic pig spot price [14]. - Bearish factors are the expected improvement in the domestic macro - environment due to the initial Sino - US trade agreement and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report presents various data on pig prices, including futures prices, spot prices, and price differentials. It also shows the trends of different pig - related prices over time, such as the basis, price spreads between different contracts, and the average prices of different pig specifications [15][16][18]. - On the supply side, it covers data on pig inventory (including different scales and types), import volume, breeding costs, feed profit expectations, slaughter volume, and profit margins. For example, as of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month and 5.2% year - on - year decrease; as of May 2024, the sow inventory was 39.96 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and 6.2% year - on - year decrease [28][29]. - On the demand side, it includes data on consumption trends, slaughter demand, and the relationship between pig and substitute meat prices [61][63]. - The report also analyzes the pig - grain ratio and the situation of pig reserve purchases and releases [64][68]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not explicitly provide detailed position data other than stating that the main players' net position is short and short positions are increasing [10].