PTA、MEG早报-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with the spot market having a general negotiation atmosphere and a strong spot basis. Some polyester factories replenished their stocks. The short - term PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price increased, but the night - session opened lower and traded weakly. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with some buying support at low levels. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand structure will improve starting from March [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No specific content provided for a detailed summary. 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA: - Fundamental: Futures rose and then fell, spot negotiation was general, basis was strong, and some polyester factories restocked. Mainstream suppliers sold goods. The spot was traded at a discount of 40 - 55 to the 05 contract, with prices ranging from 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton. The current mainstream spot basis is 05 - 50 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 5105 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 39, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net long position, with long positions increasing [6]. - MEG: - Fundamental: The price increased on Tuesday, but the night - session opened lower. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon, and some contract merchants replenished stocks. The overseas price also increased slightly. The recent arrival negotiation is around 444 - 446 US dollars/ton, and the end - of - January cargo is slightly at a premium [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3752 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 145, with the futures price higher than the spot price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Device Changes: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart around the end of January. The 1.1 - million - ton Ineos and 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng Ningbo plants have restarted. A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has restarted, and a 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th [10]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price Data: Includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and their corresponding futures prices, basis, and processing margins on December 30 and 29, 2025 [13]. - Inventory Analysis: Displays the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products over the years [41][43][46]. - Operating Rates: Covers the operating rates of polyester upstream (PTA, PX, MEG) and downstream (polyester, textile enterprises) over the years [53][55][57]. - Profit Data: Shows the processing margins of PTA and the production profits of MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) over the years [59][62][64].