水泥行业：需求温和下降，盈利继续承压

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the cement industry, with expectations of moderate demand decline in 2026, leading to continued pressure on profitability [2][11][26]. Core Insights - The cement demand is projected to experience a moderate decline in 2026, primarily due to ongoing challenges in the real estate market and a slowdown in infrastructure investment, although major infrastructure projects may provide some support [2][11]. - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist, with cement production continuing to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate dropping below 50% by September 2025, exacerbating the oversupply pressure [2][12]. - The "water-cement" price gap has slightly widened due to falling coal prices, but overall profitability remains under pressure, with limited recovery expected in 2026 [3][20][26]. Industry Operational Environment - The real estate market has been in a downward adjustment since 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease in commodity housing sales of 9.6% from January to October 2025, and a 19.8% decline in new housing starts [5][11]. - Infrastructure investment growth has been insufficient to offset the demand decline from the real estate sector, with fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) down by 1.7% year-on-year in the same period [8][11]. - Major infrastructure projects are expected to accelerate in 2026, supported by increased funding and policy initiatives, which may provide some bottom support for cement demand [9][11]. Financial Performance of Industry Enterprises - The cement industry has seen a slight improvement in profitability due to reduced coal prices, with net profits increasing by 529.03% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, despite a 2.87% decline in revenue [25][28]. - The overall financial performance remains under pressure, with increasing debt levels and weakened debt servicing indicators, necessitating close monitoring of companies with high leverage [30][33]. - The issuance of bonds by cement companies decreased in 2025, with a total issuance of 68.086 billion yuan, reflecting a net financing outflow, although the credit quality of issuers remains high [33][39].