瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the current incomplete statistics, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 sugar - making season, with a large difference in the current sugar extraction rate; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 7 more than the same period last year. However, the market estimates that the sugar production in Guangxi in December will decrease significantly year - on - year, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of the production and sales data for December, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5257 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6; the main contract position is 422,565 lots, a month - on - month increase of 6,906; the number of warehouse receipts is 6,005, a month - on - month increase of 823; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 65,309 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 4,563; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,085 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,131 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 34 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,177 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,236 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 45; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,330 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, a year - on - year increase of 60; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, a year - on - year increase of 5.24 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.49; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 593.35; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 237.4; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 330.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90.3; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,226 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,180 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 134 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 48; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45; the monthly import volume of sugar is 44 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 434 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 130.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 42; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,045.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.5 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.69%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.71%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 11.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of December 23, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 149,541 lots, a decrease of 8,108 lots from the previous week. The long position was 161,284 lots, an increase of 2,204 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 310,825 lots, a decrease of 5,904 lots from the previous week. The Rabobank said that it is expected that there will be a surplus of about 2.6 million tons of sugar in the global market in the 2025/26 season, mainly driven by the recovery of sugar production in India, which had a poor harvest last year. Sugar - cane in major producing countries is being crushed successively, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in India. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand has produced 1.0005 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 166,700 tons. As of December 15, the cumulative sugar production from Indian sugar - cane was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% [2]