铂钯金期货日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The US's tough actions against Venezuela have briefly increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong performance in the precious metals market today, with significant rebounds in the platinum and palladium futures contracts on both domestic and international exchanges [2]. - Fundamentally, platinum may continue to see price support in the medium to long - term due to expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural supply - demand deficit, and expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst sector and the continuous spread of new energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some price support, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective option again [2]. - In the short term, the Venezuela - US situation increases the risk premium and attracts risk - averse funds to the precious metals market, potentially supporting prices. In the long term, the divergence in supply - demand patterns may continue to drive the "platinum strong, palladium weak" market trend. The upper resistance for London platinum is at $2400 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $1800 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1500 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Palladium's main contract closing price was 583.95 yuan/gram, up 35.55 yuan; platinum's main contract closing price was 452.85 yuan/gram, up 36.95 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 573.65 yuan, up 62.15 yuan; the spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 413.00 yuan, up 5.00 yuan. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 10.30 yuan/gram, up 26.60 yuan; the basis of the platinum main contract was - 39.85 yuan/gram, down 31.95 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the total supply of palladium was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of platinum was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.03, up 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.91%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 13.60, up 0.13 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Venezuela's Constitutional Court ruled that the executive vice - president should act as "acting president". US former vice - president Harris opposed the US using military means to overthrow Venezuela's President Maduro. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson thought there might be a moderate further interest rate cut later in 2026, depending on the economic outlook. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 17.2%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 82.8%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 44.1%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 7.0% [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On 01 - 06 at 23:00, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI; on 01 - 07 at 21:15, the US ADP employment report; on 01 - 09 at 21:30, the US December non - farm payrolls report [2]