瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with overall fluctuations following soybean meal. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are in a shutdown state, leading to a tight supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price. The current shutdown of oil mills and the tightened import soybean clearance policy affect near - month supply. But the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The price of rapeseed oil declined today due to the drop in palm oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9044 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2361 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 604 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.6 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5332 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 35 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 46 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 204,941 lots, up 5,503 lots; rapeseed meal was 644,700 lots, up 13,230 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 18,486 lots, up 5,499 lots; rapeseed meal was - 45,495 lots, down 5,351 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3,297 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal was 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8,490 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,148.75 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Import costs: Imported rapeseed was 7,358.73 yuan/ton, down 15.41 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed oil - soybean oil was 1,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed oil - palm oil was 1,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 86 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal main contract basis was 79 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; imported rapeseed crushing profit was 608 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory was 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 17 million tons, down 0.91 million tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.9 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.74 million tons, up 0.26 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 18.44%, down 0.71%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 18.44%, down 0.72% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.98%, 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 11.68%, up 0.48% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.41%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.42% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.15%, unchanged; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14%, down 0.06% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 31, 2025 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell, ending a volatile year with prices slightly lower than at the beginning of the year. The March rapeseed contract fell 6.40 Canadian dollars, settling at 602.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, there is a stage of abundant supply, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means the US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, keeping US soybeans in a weak adjustment [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from myagric.com on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]. - Pay attention to the possibility of opening commercial purchases of Australian rapeseed and the impact of palm oil price fluctuations on rapeseed oil prices [2].