瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation amplitude expanding month - on - month. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuate at a high level. Some tire enterprises are on holiday for maintenance, and most are in a wait - and - see mode, purchasing cautiously, leading to a significant inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port due to the decline in total outbound volume. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, and it may rise slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,790 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 185 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,805 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton. The 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 40 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,985 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 181,920 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 13,145 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 70,581 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 40,988 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 45,601 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,974 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 15,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,297 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 100,690 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 100 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,959 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,870 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,865 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 490 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,090 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,152 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 1,895 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 58.15 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 55.49 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, with no change; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 45,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly start - up rate of all - steel tires is 59.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly start - up rate of semi - steel tires is 69.35%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.06%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8%. As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points [2].