瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of methanol is relatively abundant, and the inventory is expected to increase overall in the winter due to weak demand expectations. The port inventory continued to accumulate last week but is expected to decline from high levels in January due to expected import reduction. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate decreased slightly last week, but there is an expectation of an increase. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2190 - 2280 in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 43 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 773,584 lots, an increase of 42,196 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 128,251 lots, a decrease of 21,279 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,648, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1857.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 312.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 257 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 256 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 63 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.64 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 104.71 tons, an increase of 3.98 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 43.03 tons, an increase of 2.51 tons. The methanol import profit is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.31%, a decrease of 0.93% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 38.24%, a decrease of 4.19%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.6%, a decrease of 3.49%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.3%, an increase of 2.71%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 87.46%, a decrease of 1.8%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 1115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 16.39%, a decrease of 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.44%, a decrease of 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.85%, a decrease of 0.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.85%, a decrease of 0.77% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 31, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 42.26 tons, a 4.61% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered was 18.30 tons, a 5.48% decrease. The total methanol port inventory in China was 147.74 tons, an increase of 6.49 tons, with both East and South China ports accumulating inventory. The domestic methanol - to - olefins device capacity utilization rate was 88.66%, a decrease of 0.02%. Recently, the domestic methanol production loss from maintenance and production cuts is less than the output increase from recovery, leading to an overall increase in production [3]