合成橡胶产业日报-20260105

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is predicted that the inventory level may further increase this week due to continuous supply growth and short - term impact on raw material procurement from downstream maintenance; the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week but may slightly rebound this week; the BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary of Each Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 1,1645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 40,237 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,024 tons; the 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in Shandong, Shanghai, and Guangdong are 11,500 yuan/ton, 11,500 yuan/ton, and 11,600 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the basis of synthetic rubber is - 115 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons; the production profit of butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The production of all - steel tires in the current month is 1.301 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 3.27 days and 47.05 days respectively; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.53%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.83 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 57.93%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - In December, the production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%; the capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, 4.65 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year; as of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.07% [2]