瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260105

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - V2605 fluctuated weakly and closed at 4,764 yuan/ton. Recently, the restart of Hanwha Ningbo and Xinpu Chemical plants led to a环比 increase in PVC capacity utilization. The downstream PVC products' operating rate decreased环比, with both pipe and profile operating rates declining. Social inventory slightly accumulated at a high level. The costs of calcium carbide and ethylene processes decreased, and profits were slightly repaired. In January, the impact of chlor - alkali plant overhauls was seasonally weak, with few existing overhaul plans, and the industry operating rate was expected to remain at a relatively high level. The terminal real estate and infrastructure were in the low - temperature off - season, and the operating rates of hard products such as pipes and profiles might continue to decline. Market sentiment was pessimistic, and downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory based on rigid demand. The overseas market was highly competitive, and exports provided limited support. Despite some chlor - alkali integrated plants being in a theoretical loss state, there was no opportunity for PVC valuation repair under the high - supply background. Affected by the spring overhaul expectation, the spot price was at a discount to the 05 contract. In the short term, V2605 was expected to fluctuate, and the daily K - line should focus on the support around 4,700 and the resistance around 4,860 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4,764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan; the trading volume was 770,165 lots, an increase of 27,820 lots; the open interest was 957,977 lots, an increase of 34,447 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 926,879 lots, an increase of 20,553 lots; the short positions were 1,007,152 lots, an increase of 27,593 lots; the net long positions were - 80,273 lots, a decrease of 7,040 lots [3] 现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,505.77 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,563.12 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.12 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,606.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 407 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 448 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 产业情况 - The operating rate of PVC was 78.63%, a 1.4% increase; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 78.36%, a 0.13% decrease; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.29%, a 5.01% increase. The total social inventory of PVC was 52.52 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 48.06 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 4.46 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons [3] 下游情况 - The national real estate climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.560662 billion square meters, an increase of 31.2717 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, an increase of 30.416 billion yuan [3] 期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.76%, an increase of 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.31%, an increase of 0.11%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.67%, a decrease of 0.53%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.67%, a decrease of 0.53% [3] 行业消息 - From December 27 to January 2, the operating rate of PVC plants increased by 1.4% to 78.63%; the operating rate of PVC downstream decreased by 0.58% to 43.94%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.6% to 35.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.79% to 29.78%. As of January 2, the social inventory of PVC was 1.0767 million tons, a 1.46% increase from last week [2]