氯碱月报：SH：供需偏弱形势依然严峻，预计价格反弹后重回弱势，V：供给高位仍未缓解，需求淡季价格承压-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In December, the caustic soda market declined comprehensively. The average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 718.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.57%. In Jiangsu, it was 826 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.77%. In January, the main contradiction in the caustic soda market is still supply - demand. It is expected that the supply will increase, and the trading strategy is to try shorting at high prices and set a stop - loss at the pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. - In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend under the dual influence of supply - demand contradictions and policy expectations. Although there was a phased rebound, it did not change the long - term weak pattern. The trading strategy is to wait and see in the short term and observe the upper pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - Price and Market Situation: In December, the price of liquid caustic soda in the main production areas decreased. The market was affected by factors such as high supply and weak demand from alumina. The price of liquid chlorine supported high - level production, which was negative for the price of caustic soda in Shandong [2]. - Supply: In December, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 85.70%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points. The monthly output was 373.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.59% and a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. The inventory pressure of caustic soda plants decreased slightly [24]. - Demand from Alumina: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [28]. - Export: In November, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit increased slightly [54]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price and Market Situation: In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend. The price decline at the beginning of the month was due to high inventory and weak demand, and the subsequent rebound was driven by policy expectations and supply - side marginal changes, but the long - term weak pattern remained unchanged [2]. - Supply: In December 2025, the estimated PVC output was 2.1399 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.91% and a year - on - year increase of 4.28%. December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand, and the downstream demand is weak [83]. - Demand: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [85]. - Inventory: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [93]. - Export: In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 275,300 tons, with an average export price of 589 US dollars/ton. The monthly export decreased by 11.78% month - on - month and increased by 29.64% year - on - year. The import volume was 15,700 tons, with an average import price of 708 US dollars/ton [110]. Alumina - Market Situation: After continuous decline, the alumina price has gradually stabilized, but the fundamental situation is still weak, with an oversupply situation in the domestic market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2650 - 2900 yuan in the short term [35]. Bauxite - Market Situation: The bauxite price is stable, and the inventory has been reduced to a certain extent [36]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Situation: The output of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has decreased [42]. Non - Aluminum Downstream - Market Situation: The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream industries has declined, and the off - season is approaching [47].