瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fat pig supply is tight, and short - term supply pressure eases, but second - round fattening entry is becoming more cautious. On the demand side, it is currently the peak demand season, but after the New Year's Day stocking ended, demand declined from the small peak. Terminal consumption has limited acceptance of price increases, and southern demand has decreased significantly, with prices performing weaker than in the north. Overall, short - term supply tightening supports pig prices, but as prices rise and New Year's Day stocking ends, the support from second - round fattening and the demand side weakens, and the risk of price decline accumulates. On the futures market, the live hog 2603 contract opened lower and closed lower, falling 0.98% and showing an adjustment trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs is 11,660 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 172,106 lots, up 962 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 918 lots, down 95 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 49,749 lots, up 1,849 lots; the main basis for live hogs is 940 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of live hogs in Henan Zhumadian is 12,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 1,1800 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 12,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Live hog inventory is 43,6800,000 heads, up 1,2330,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 3,9900,000 heads, down 450,000 heads; CPI year - on - year is 0.7%, up 0.5 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,356.47 yuan/ton, up 0.39 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 892.01, down 0.16; the monthly output of feed is 29,779,000 tons, up 209,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,429 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 48.35 yuan/head, up 114.45 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs is - 34.59 yuan/head, up 95.52 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,9570,000 heads, up 1230,000 heads; the monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2] 3.5 Industry News - Mysteel data shows that on January 5th, the daily slaughter volume of live hogs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 150,806 heads, a 1.12% decrease from the previous day [2]