瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No provided information. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the freight index (European line) futures prices rose collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed up 1.48%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1795.83, up 53.19 points from last week, a 3.1% increase, driving the futures prices up [1]. - In December, China's manufacturing PMI data slightly recovered, in line with seasonal patterns. The new export orders index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas [1]. - Spot freight rates showed a slow - rising trend in January. The early - January quote increased by $400 compared to December, and the late - January preliminary quote for large containers ranged from $2700 - $3100. The rate adjustment progress of other shipping companies needs further follow - up [1]. - Geopolitically, after a brief cease - fire at the end of 2025, the Israeli army restarted a large - scale ground offensive in southern Gaza in early 2026, causing the Red Sea resumption expectation to turn cold and further supporting freight rates [1]. - The euro - zone economy continued to recover. With large - scale fiscal stimulus, Germany's service industry continued to strongly recover, and the comprehensive PMI stably ran above 50. The inflation sub - item continued to decline, which was conducive to the euro - zone economy maintaining its relative strength since the third quarter [1]. - Overall, the improvement of the trade - war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are beneficial for the futures price recovery. The geopolitical situation is in a stalemate, and its short - term impact on freight rates is weakened. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Data | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | EC Main Closing Price | 1855.500 | - | | EC Second - Main Closing Price | 1198 | +30.80↑ | | EC2602 - EC2604 Spread | 657.50 | - | | EC2602 - EC2606 Spread | 466.50 | +33.10↑ | | EC Contract Basis | -112.86 | +99.24↑ | | EC Main Position Volume (lots) | 26046 | 1916↑ | [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS (European Line) (Weekly) | 1795.83 | +53.19↑ | | SCFIS (US West Line) (Weekly) | 1250.12 | -51.29↓ | | SCFI (Composite Index) (Weekly) | 1656.32 | 0.00↑ | | CCFI (Composite Index) (Weekly) | 1146.67 | +21.94↑ | | CCFI (European Line) (Weekly) | 1519.06 | +45.16↑ | | Baltic Dry Bulk Index (Daily) | 1877.00 | +5.00↑ | | Panama - Type Freight Index (Daily) | 1267.00 | +15.00↑ | | Average Charter Price (Panama - Type Ship) | 0.00 | 0.00↑ | | Average Charter Price (Cape - Type Ship) | 22415.00 | +295.00↑ | [1] 3.3 Industry News - The US "raided" Venezuela, and Venezuelan President Maduro may appear in a federal court in New York on January 5. The global crude oil market has shown signs of digesting the shock as Venezuela's key oil facilities were not damaged and its oil production accounts for less than 1% of the global supply [1]. - During the New Year's Day holiday this year, Haikou Customs supervised the sales of 442,000 pieces of Hainan duty - free goods, a 52.4% year - on - year increase; the number of shoppers was 83,500 person - times, a 60.6% year - on - year increase; and the shopping amount was 712 million yuan, a 128.9% year - on - year increase [1]. - India's Ministry of Finance's Tax Bureau decided to impose a 6 - month temporary anti - dumping duty on low - ash metallurgical coke imported from China, Australia, Colombia, Indonesia, Japan, and Russia [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - Germany's December CPI monthly rate preliminary value at 21:00 on January 6. - The US December S&P Global Services PMI final value at 22:45 on January 6. [1]