沪铜产业日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material side has a tight copper concentrate supply, and the cost - support logic for copper prices is solid. Supply may gradually shrink due to tight raw materials and approaching holidays, and the growth rate of domestic refined copper supply is slowing. Demand is affected by high copper prices, and downstream buyers are cautious. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and cautious demand, with an increase in social inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a bullish signal. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with light positions, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai copper futures contract is 101,350 yuan/ton, up 3110 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,833 dollars/ton, up 363.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 216,315 lots, up 8069 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 45,864 lots, down 3287 lots. The LME copper inventory is 145,325 tons, down 2100 tons. The SHFE cathode copper inventory is 145,342 tons, up 33,639 tons. The SHFE cathode copper warrant is 90,282 tons, down 2856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,575 yuan/ton, up 1755 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 100,660 yuan/ton, up 1325 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 7.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 775 yuan/ton, down 1355 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 38.6 dollars/ton, up 8.21 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 89,620 yuan/metal ton, up 1610 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 90,320 yuan/metal ton, up 1610 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The monthly output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 67,970 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,050 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment is 7859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 21.82%, up 1.47 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.69%, up 1.40 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 27.33%, down 0.0101 percentage points. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.49, up 0.0406 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points month - on - month, all rising to the expansion range. In 2025, the sales of trade - in related goods exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 3.6 billion people. The eurozone's December 2025 manufacturing PMI was 48.8, lower than expected. Fed's Paulson said that if inflation cools, the Fed may further cut interest rates but will not take immediate additional measures. In December 2025, BYD's new - energy vehicle sales were 420,398, down 18.2% year - on - year, with an annual cumulative sales of 4.602436 million, up 7.73% year - on - year, and overseas sales exceeded 1 million for the first time, up 145%. Geely's December 2025 sales were 236,817, up 13% year - on - year, and the annual sales were 3.024567 million, up 39% year - on - year. Many new - energy vehicle brands had record - high December sales, and Leapmotor ranked first with nearly 600,000 annual sales [2].