农产品早报-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The corn market is affected by the targeted auction policy in the short - term, with strong basis and trade inversion. After the New Year's Day, downstream seasonal restocking may drive up prices. In the long - term, import and domestic auction policies should be focused on [2]. - The starch market has a slow de - stocking speed due to weak downstream restocking. The price adjustment space is limited, and it is expected to strengthen slightly after the New Year's Day. Long - term price depends on downstream consumption rhythm [2]. - The short - term supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the medium - and long - term price will be affected by the global sugar market surplus and policies [3]. - The initial inventory of cotton is low, and demand is expected to improve next year due to expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, suitable for long - term long positions [4]. - For eggs, the存栏 inflection point has appeared, and the egg price in the second quarter may be boosted if there is a concentrated elimination of chickens before the Laba Festival [11]. - The apple market has a weak trading atmosphere recently. Good - quality apples maintain stable prices, and the market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [17]. - After the New Year's Day, the short - term sentiment of the pig market is weak. There may be a supply - demand mismatch in January, and long - term improvement depends on further production and inventory reduction [17]. Summaries by Commodities Corn/Starch - Price and Basis: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis strengthened. Starch prices remained stable, and the basis increased slightly [1]. - Trade and Profit: Corn trade profit fluctuated between - 10 and 10, and the import profit increased from 206 to 287. Starch processing profit decreased from - 49 to - 79 [1]. Sugar - Price and Basis: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the spot prices of sugar in different regions decreased, and the basis decreased by 46 [3]. - Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts: The import profit from Thailand and Brazil fluctuated, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1696 [3]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price and Profit: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of domestic cotton increased by 160, and the import profit of cotton and the spinning profit of 32S decreased [4]. - Warehouse Receipts: The sum of warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 130 [4]. Eggs - Price and Basis: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, egg prices in some production areas increased slightly, and the basis decreased by 1 [10]. - Substitute Prices: The prices of white - feather broilers increased by 0.03, yellow - feather broilers decreased by 0.05, and pigs increased by 0.37 [10]. Apples - Price and Basis: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the prices of good - quality apples remained stable, and the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis changed significantly [16][17]. - Inventory: As of January 1, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 797.14 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.18 million tons [17]. Pigs - Price and Basis: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, pig prices in some production areas fluctuated, and the basis decreased by 415 [17].