燃料油早报-20260106

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] Key Points 1. Price Data and Changes - Rotterdam Fuel Oil: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 1.27, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 7.62, and other related spreads also had corresponding changes [3]. - Singapore Fuel Oil: The price of Singapore 380cst M1 and 180cst M1, VLSFO M1, etc., had different changes during the same period. For example, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 2.10 from December 26 to January 5 [3][4]. - Singapore Fuel Oil Spot: The FOB 380cst price decreased by 8.13, and the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 7.06 from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026 [4]. - Domestic FU: The prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 decreased by 35, 21, and 30 respectively from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026 [4]. - Domestic LU: The price of LU 01 increased by 253, while LU 05 and LU 09 decreased by 26 and 29 respectively from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026 [5]. 2. Core Views - Before the festival, the cracking of 380 fuel oil fluctuated, and it weakened slightly after the festival. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from the low point but remained weak year - on - year. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level [5]. - The cracking of Singapore 0.5% fuel oil oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a significant inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a significant inventory draw - down, ARA residue oil had a small inventory build - up, Fujairah residue oil had an inventory draw - down, and EIA residue oil had a small inventory build - up [11]. - The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on heavy crude oil. It is necessary to pay attention to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around - 12 [11]. - The high - sulfur spot market remained loose, and attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low - sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [11].