油脂油料早报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean export inspection and sales data show a mixed performance, with export inspection volume in line with expectations and sales showing different growth trends compared to previous periods [1] - The Brazilian soybean production forecast has been raised, and the 2025 export volume reached a record high, while the Malaysian palm - oil inventory is expected to reach a near - seven - year high due to strong production [1] 3. Summary by Related Content US Soybean Export Data - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 980,518 tons, in line with the market forecast of 750,000 - 1,150,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 397,069 tons, accounting for 40.5% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year is 16,401,241 tons, compared with 29,967,442 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the net increase in US current - market - year soybean export sales was 117.77 million tons, a 19% increase from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the four - week average. The net increase in next - year's export sales was 6.64 million tons. The export shipment was 122 million tons, a 43% increase from the previous week and a 47% increase from the four - week average [1] US Soybean Meal Export Data - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the net increase in US current - market - year soybean meal export sales was 11.06 million tons, a 63% decrease from the previous week and a 73% decrease from the four - week average. The net increase in next - year's export sales was 4.18 million tons. The export shipment was 26.08 million tons, a 34% decrease from the previous week and a 25% decrease from the four - week average [1] Brazilian Soybean Data - Brazilian consulting firm StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 177.6 million tons, a 0.2% increase from its December forecast and a 5.2% increase from the previous year, due to higher yields in Mato Grosso and favorable December weather [1] - BiondAgro also predicted a record - high Brazilian crop yield of 176.85 million tons [1] - Cargonave data showed that Brazil's 2025 soybean export volume reached a record high of 108.68 million tons, an 11.7% increase from 2024, and the soybean meal export volume also reached a record high, exceeding 23.07 million tons [1] Malaysian Palm - oil Data - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm - oil product export volume in December 2025 was 1,000,703 tons, a 28.40% increase from the previous month [1] - A survey showed that Malaysia's December 2025 palm - oil inventory is expected to reach a near - seven - year high of 2.97 million tons, a 4.7% increase from November, due to strong monthly production. The crude palm - oil production is expected to be 1.76 million tons, the highest since December 2018, although it decreased by 9% from the previous month. Palm - oil product exports are expected to increase by 2.8% to 1.25 million tons [1] Indonesian Palm - oil Data - Indonesia's statistics showed that from January to November 2025, the country exported 20.85 million tons of crude and refined palm - oil, a 4.32% increase from the previous year, with a total export value of 21.63 billion US dollars. In November, the export volume was 1.36 million tons, a nearly 29% decrease from the previous year [1] Spot Price Data - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm - oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are provided, showing certain price fluctuations [1]