大越期货油脂早报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations remain tense, putting pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,254, with a basis of 398, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward-sloping. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. However, palm oil is entering the production increase season, so the supply will increase. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,480, with a basis of 8, showing a slight spot premium over futures. [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - Market: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Same MPOB report situation as above, and entering the production increase season with increased supply. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,926, with a basis of 882, indicating a significant spot premium over futures. [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - Market: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is also the palm oil tremor season factor. [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]