大越期货白糖早报-20260106

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic white sugar main contract 05 has entered a short - term adjustment mode, with support around 5200, and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [4][7] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the white sugar market. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and supply surplus in the new season, and the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in foreign sugar prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, StoneX 370 tons, Czarnikow 740 tons, and DATAGRO 100 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 88.3 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.16 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 44 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 9 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.82 tons [4][7] - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5360, with a basis of 103 (for the 05 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 79.14 tons, which is bearish [4] - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4] 3. Today's Focus - No information provided 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 tons as global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [29] - Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane planting area, sugar - beet planting area, sugar - cane yield per unit area, sugar - beet yield per unit area, sugar production, and sugar imports are expected to change. In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.7 million tons, imports 5 million tons, consumption 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [31] - Import Cost: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline in international sugar prices, the import profit was considerable [34] 5. Position Data - No information provided