集运早报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the futures market has changed little. For the 02 contract, its price mainly depends on the spot market and enters the delivery logic, making it difficult to predict the future price decline rhythm. It is not recommended to enter the market at the current price level [3]. - The valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, but there is short - term upward risk. The strategy is to go short on rallies [3]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Based on the long - term logic of resuming navigation and the off - season, the 10 contract should be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Futures Contract Data - EC Contracts: The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 are 1855.5, 1198.0, 1389.0, 1502.3, and 1082.6 respectively, with daily increases of 3.01%, 2.74%, 1.54%, 0.15%, and 2.13% [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 are 657.5 and - 191.0 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 22.2 and 10.9, and week - on - week changes of - 12.2 and - 29.6 [2]. Spot Index Data - SCHIS (European Line): On January 6, 2025, it was 3387.69 points, a decrease of 3.59% from the previous period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): On December 26, 2025, it was 1690 dollars/TEU, an increase of 10.24% from the previous period [2]. European Line Spot Situation - Week 2: MSK's price remained flat at 2500 dollars, but the opening price at Hamburg Port was 2600 dollars (+100). Some PA routes saw price cuts, while OA routes had price increases. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [4]. - Price Increase Notices: Some shipping companies issued price increase notices for the second half of January. For example, on January 1, MSC announced price increases for 20GP and 40GP containers on the European line to 2400/4000 dollars respectively [4]. - MSK's Week 3 Opening Price: It was 2600 dollars, and the price at Hamburg was 2700 dollars (+100) [4]. Geopolitical News - On December 31, 2025, the Israeli military chief of staff stated that the Israeli army would continue to disarm Hamas [4]. - On January 5, 2026, the Israeli army warned residents in southern Lebanon to evacuate as it planned to attack Hamas and Hezbollah military facilities [4].