建信期货鸡蛋日报-20260106

Report Overview - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the national egg price fluctuated slightly higher. The futures opened higher and then declined, showing that the futures market is stronger than the spot market recently, with some off - market funds willing to bottom - fish. The存栏 has reached an inflection point, with weak current situation but good future expectations. The 02 contract is in an absolute off - season, and there is no sign of a trend increase in the spot price. It may weaken again in the future. The post - holiday contracts, especially the peak - season 05 contract, are more suitable for bulls. The near - and far - month contracts should be treated as reverse spreads [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - For the 2602 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2931, the opening price was 2977, the highest price was 2987, the lowest price was 2951, the closing price was 2957, the increase was 26, the increase rate was 0.89%, the trading volume was 97,293, the open interest was 87,152, and the open interest change was - 18,716. - For the 2603 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2950, the opening price was 2973, the highest price was 3021, the lowest price was 2970, the closing price was 2992, the increase was 42, the increase rate was 1.42%, the trading volume was 224,323, the open interest was 219,525, and the open interest change was 8285. - For the 2605 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3511, the opening price was 3535, the highest price was 3563, the lowest price was 3531, the closing price was 3550, the increase was 39, the increase rate was 1.11%, the trading volume was 55,015, the open interest was 96,930, and the open interest change was - 3596 [7]. - Operation Suggestions: The 02 contract is in an absolute off - season, with no sign of a trend increase in the spot price, and may weaken again. Bulls can focus on the peak - season contracts in the second or third quarter, and treat the near - and far - month contracts as reverse spreads [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, ending the previous continuous increase. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 5.3%, indicating significant supply - side pressure [9]. - Replenishment: In November 2025, the monthly number of egg - laying chicks hatched by sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly higher than that in October. Compared with the same period in 2024, it decreased by 13.5%. The total replenishment from August to November 2025 was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9]. - Elimination Volume: From the three weeks up to December 18, the national number of eliminated chickens was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous decline [10]. - Elimination Age: As of December 18, the average elimination age of chickens was 486 days, the same as the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - laying chicken breeding profits, the average price of the main egg - producing areas, the seasonal trend of egg contracts, the basis of egg contracts, and the price difference between egg contracts. The data sources include Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [11][14][17]