建信期货工业硅日报-20260106

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental drivers of the industrial silicon market are not obvious. The futures price is under pressure after failing to break through 9000 yuan/ton, and the market is in a contango oscillation. In January, the spot market is dull, with supply at a seasonal low, facing increasing production pressure in the wet season after the second quarter. The monthly production in the first quarter remains around 350,000 tons. On the demand side, the monthly operating rate of silicone monomers is 72.85%, and the concentrated production cut has not been significantly realized. The polysilicon production in December decreased slightly month - on - month, and the demand is hard to increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Price - The industrial silicon futures price is under pressure and declined. The SI2605 contract price is 8730 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.24%. The trading volume is 271,132 lots, and the open interest is 216,220 lots, with a net increase of 13,298 lots. The top twenty long positions increased by 2,597 lots, and the short positions increased by 11,095 lots [4]. - The spot prices are stable. The Sichuan 553 grade is 9300 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 grade is 8950 yuan/ton, the Sichuan 421 grade is 9900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 grade is 9550 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 grade is 9550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On January 5th, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,231 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08% [5]. - In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon weekly production was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [5]. - The polysilicon quotation shows a divergence between the rising trend and actual transactions. The industry inventory is high, and downstream enterprises lack the motivation to replenish stocks. However, with industry self - discipline and policy support, enterprises are determined to hold prices, and the spot transaction price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable in the short term [5].