建信期货生猪日报-20260106

Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The trend of supply and demand in the pig market has different characteristics in the long - and short - term. In the long run, pig slaughter is expected to show a slight increase until the first half of next year. Currently, the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption after the festival has declined but remains at a relatively high level. The spot market will mainly fluctuate. For futures, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the pre - Spring Festival demand has strong elasticity. However, the pressure from secondary fattening is still high, and there is a risk of callback. The progress of the epidemic needs to be continuously monitored [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 5th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, and finally closed down. The highest price was 11,775 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,610 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% compared with the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,099 lots to 351,622 lots [6] - Spot Market: On the 5th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.44 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.34 yuan/kg compared with before the festival [6] - Supply - side Situation: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to show a slight increase until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening before the festival has increased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has slightly increased. The monthly slaughter of breeding enterprises in January may continue to increase slightly, and the current slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is controllable [7] - Demand - side Situation: Currently, secondary fattening has increased, with rolling restocking demand. After the festival, consumption has declined, but there is still room for cured meat and sausage production. Terminal consumer consumption remains at a high level. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased after the festival, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. On January 5th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 188,800 heads, an increase of 200 heads compared with the previous day, a decrease of 12,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 10,000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Information, in the week of January 4th, the overall proportion of small - weight pigs below 90 kg in the total slaughter was 5.44%, a decrease of 0.07% compared with the previous week. The current epidemic is sporadically occurring seasonally, and the slaughter volume of small - weight pigs in many places has decreased compared with the previous period. There is no sign of the epidemic spreading [8][10] 3. Data Overview - 15kg Piglet Price: In the week of January 4th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 319 yuan/head, an increase of 12 yuan/head compared with the previous week [17] - Breeding Profit: As of January 4th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 28.3 yuan/head, an increase of 96 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet for fattening was - 160.8 yuan/head, an increase of 95 yuan/head week - on - week [17] - Average Slaughter Weight: In the week of January 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.66kg, a decrease of 1.04kg compared with the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.80%), a decrease of 1.16kg compared with the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 2.6kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.06%) [17]