建信期货豆粕日报-20260106

Report Information - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - External Market: During the holiday, the US soybean futures contracts first declined and then stabilized but remained weak overall, with the main contract approaching 1050 cents. The rebound at the end of December was due to the price reaching an important support level and the year - end inventory of US soybeans decreasing year - on - year. Also, the recent export sales of US soybeans were good, with frequent large - order transactions and continuous purchases from China. However, the biggest pressure on the external market came from the approaching South American harvest. Brazilian soybeans entered a critical growth stage, with sufficient rainfall in the main producing areas, and some institutions have raised the production forecast to over 180 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate of 175 million tons and last year's 171.5 million tons. The external market tested the support level of 1050 cents again [6]. - Domestic Market: Soybean meal rebounded before the holiday due to rumors of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns. However, the high inventory was difficult to consume, and these positive factors were short - term. The overall bull market in commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, boosted bullish sentiment. But once the market returned to fundamentals, soybean meal might have a catch - up decline, especially the 05 contract, which was mainly priced by Brazilian soybean costs and was unlikely to have a continuous rebound [6]. Operation Suggestions - Short - term, it is recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the support level of the external market [6]. 2. Industry News - Brazil: According to Emater, as Rio Grande do Sul entered the final sowing stage, the nutritional growth of the 2025/26 soybean crop in the state was "satisfactory to very good". Emater maintained the average yield forecast at 3180 kg per hectare, a significant increase from the previous season's 2009 kg per hectare affected by drought. If the weather remained favorable, the state's soybean production could reach 21.44 million tons, a 57.14% increase from the previous year. As of last Thursday, 92% of the expected 6.74 million - hectare planting area had been sown, and 98% of the sown crops were in the germination/nutritional growth stage [7]. - Argentina: As of December 23, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 77%, up from 65% last week but lower than 88% in the same period last year [9]. 3. Data Overview - Data sources for various figures (including soybean meal factory price, basis of 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate) are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][16]