Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][7][8] Core Views Steel - Yesterday, steel prices remained weak, with coking coal and coke on the raw material side being weak and iron ore being slightly strong. Steel continued to reduce production and destock. Rebar maintained a large supply - demand gap and good destocking, while hot - rolled coil destocking was still slow. Apparent demand declined seasonally, and demand was weak. The weak demand expectation in 2026 restricted the upward price elasticity, but current production cuts supported steel prices. The rebar price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3200, and the hot - rolled coil price in the range of 3150 - 3350. Pay attention to the support levels of rebar at 3000 and hot - rolled coil at 3150 [1] Iron Ore - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract opened higher and then maintained a high - level shock. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the mine's fiscal year impulse ended. Future focus is on the weather in the Southern Hemisphere. On the demand side, the pig iron output remained flat, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, but many were still under annual overhauls. The steel mill profitability improved, but overall it was the off - season for demand, with high finished product inventory and many overhauls, so the subsequent resumption of production is expected to be limited. Iron ore inventory is at a high level in the same period, and it will continue to accumulate. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate strongly. Consider short - term long positions, with the price range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. After the 4th round of price cuts in the spot market, there is still an expectation of further cuts. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind those of coking coal, squeezing coking profits and reducing production. On the demand side, steel mills' losses increased, leading to more overhauls, a decline in pig iron output, and an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. The coke supply - demand situation weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7] Coking Coal - Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. The spot auction price in Shanxi was weak, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated downward. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily coal mine output after the new year, but poor sales led to inventory accumulation. Imported coal at the port continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated downward. On the demand side, steel mill losses and overhauls decreased slightly, pig iron output was stable with a slight increase, coking profits declined, and production decreased slightly. The market's demand for inventory replenishment weakened. All sectors' inventories increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract fluctuated downward. The supply side saw a halt in the decline of ferrosilicon production, with production cuts mainly in Shaanxi and Gansu, and a slight increase in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. In terms of steelmaking demand, pig iron output was basically flat, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Non - steel demand from metal magnesium had some support, but the export profit weakened. The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated, and the production cut expectation has been priced in. The future demand improvement expectation is insufficient, and prices lack upward momentum. Pay attention to the policy changes and raw material prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate, with the range of 5700 - 6000 [8] Ferromanganese - Yesterday, ferromanganese fluctuated. The supply side had a slight increase in production last week, and there is still room for short - term production growth. In terms of demand, pig iron output increased slightly, and steelmaking demand was stable. Steel mills had a strong price - pressing sentiment in tenders. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory remained high. The manganese ore price was stable, and some mines' January outer - market quotes increased. Ferromanganese is in a state of slight over - supply but generally balanced. Manganese ore supports the price. It is expected that the price will fluctuate, with the key being the production cut amplitude and the end - of - year raw material replenishment by steel mills. Consider range - bound operations, with the range of 5500 - 5800 [8] Summary by Section Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East and North China decreased by 20 and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton, and the slab price at 3730 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions had different changes, with most showing an increase of 3 yuan [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output remained at 226.5 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.4 tons to 815.2 tons, with rebar output increasing by 3.8 tons to 188.2 tons and hot - rolled coil output increasing by 11.0 tons to 304.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 25.8 tons to 1232.2 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 422.0 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.3 tons to 371.0 tons [1] Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.4 to 8.7, a decline of 4.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.4 tons to 841.0 tons, the rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.2 tons to 202.7 tons, and the hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 3.7 tons to 310.8 tons [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders mostly increased, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders had different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 22.0, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.0 to 17.5 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 tons to 2756.4 tons, the global shipment volume decreased by 463.4 tons to 3213.7 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output remained at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average dispatching volume increased by 1.6 tons to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 41.8 tons to 15970.89 tons, the 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 days [3] Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 56 and 45 respectively, with a decline of 3.7% and 2.6% respectively [7] Supply - The daily average output of full - sample coking plants and 247 - steel mill coking remained unchanged at 62.7 and 46.8 tons respectively [7] Demand - The 247 - steel mill pig iron output remained at 226.6 tons [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 3.0 tons to 915.7 tons, with the full - sample coking plant inventory decreasing by 0.6 tons to 91.6 tons, the 247 - steel mill inventory increasing by 1.8 tons to 644.0 tons, and the port inventory increasing by 1.9 tons to 180.1 tons [7] Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged, and the Mongolian No. 5 raw coal price decreased by 16, a decline of 1.4%. The coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 16 and 35 respectively, with a decline of 1.5% and 3.14% respectively [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The steel mill loss and overhaul decreased, pig iron output was stable with a slight increase, coking profit declined, and production decreased slightly [7] Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 13.6 tons to 148.5 tons, the full - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 12.8 tons to 1052.5 tons, and the 247 - steel mill coking coal inventory decreased by 4.5 tons to 802.3 tons [7] Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The main ferrosilicon contract decreased by 48 to 5624, a decline of 0.8%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in different regions mostly decreased [8] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased slightly by 0.1, and the production profit decreased by 6.7 [8] Supply - The ferrosilicon production increased by 0.0 tons to 9.9 tons, and the production enterprise's operating rate remained at 29.5% [8] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output increased by 0.8 tons to 227.4 tons, and the ferrosilicon demand increased slightly [8] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 6.4 tons [8] Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The main ferromanganese contract decreased by 46 to 5874, a decline of 0.8%. The spot prices of ferromanganese in different regions had different changes [8] Cost and Profit - The manganese ore price remained stable, and some mines' January outer - market quotes increased [8] Supply - The ferromanganese production increased slightly last week, and the operating rate increased by 0.1% to 36.9% [8] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output increased by 0.8 tons to 227.4 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased slightly [8] Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.8 tons to 39.4 tons [8]
《黑色》日报-20260106
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-06 02:29