《农产品》日报-20260106

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of a downward trend in Malaysian palm oil if it breaks below 4000 ringgit. In China, the futures of Dalian palm oil are expected to be weakly viewed in the short - term due to high port inventories and the potential weakness of Malaysian palm oil. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. In China, the fundamentals of soybean oil are positive as inventories are decreasing, and imports are expected to decline in January [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Attention should be paid to whether COFCO can start pressing on time. After starting, it may relieve the shortage in South China, but there is a risk of further price decline in the futures market [1]. Cotton - ICE US cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In the Chinese market, cotton prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term due to factors such as faster sales progress, cost solidification, and expected reduction in planting area in 2026 [3]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to trade in a range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound in the short - term. In the Chinese market, sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile at a low level due to the expected supply surplus and cautious market sentiment [4]. Jujube - The spot market of jujube has weak trading, but the new - season warehouse receipt cost provides some support to the futures market. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction progress [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the co - existence of farmers' reluctance to sell and policy - supported supply. However, policy releases and pre - Spring Festival selling pressure may suppress prices [8]. Pork - Spot pork prices are back in a volatile pattern. The futures market is expected to be range - bound in the short - term. Although there is some support from secondary fattening, the overall supply in January is relatively loose [10]. Meal - US soybeans have a technical rebound, but the global supply - demand pattern and South American production expectations still suppress the market. In China, soybean meal is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short - term [13]. Eggs - The supply pressure of eggs may ease as the number of laying hens is expected to decrease. Although the market sentiment is positive due to approaching Spring Festival stocking, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to be volatile at a low level [15]. 3. Summary by Catalog Oils and Fats - Prices: On January 5, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil remained unchanged at 8410 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.08% to 7856 yuan/ton. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.16% to 8490 yuan/ton, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 1.12% to 8488 yuan/ton. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.20% to 10050 yuan/ton, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.47% to 9044 yuan/ton [1]. - Spreads: The soybean - palm oil spread (2605) increased by 12.47% to - 632 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread (2605) decreased by 3.02% to 1188 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - Futures Market: On January 5, 2026, the price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.48% to 14655 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.58% to 14845 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.98% to 64.64 cents per pound [3]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.32% to 15442 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.38% to 15615 yuan/ton [3]. Sugar - Futures Market: On January 5, 2026, the price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.11% to 5257 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.06% to 5269 yuan/ton. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.82% to 14.72 cents per pound [4]. - Spot Market: The Nanning spot price decreased by 0.37% to 5330 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price decreased by 0.19% to 5200 yuan/ton [4]. Jujube - Futures Market: On January 5, 2026, the price of jujube 2601 increased by 1.82% to 9250 yuan/ton, and the price of the main contract jujube 2605 decreased by 0.11% to 8955 yuan/ton [6]. - Spot Market: The Cangzhou super - grade spot price decreased by 0.63% to 9460 yuan/ton, and the first - grade spot price remained unchanged at 8200 yuan/ton [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: On January 5, 2026, the price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.09% to 2224 yuan/ton, and the Jinzhou Port FAS price decreased by 0.86% to 2310 yuan/ton [8]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.24% to 2509 yuan/ton, and the Changchun spot price remained unchanged at 2570 yuan/ton [8]. Pork - Futures Market: On January 5, 2026, the price of the main contract decreased by 25.86% to 1190 yuan/ton, and the price of pork 2605 decreased by 0.45% to 12110 yuan/ton [10]. - Spot Market: The Henan spot price decreased by 4.10% to 12850 yuan/ton, and the Shandong spot price decreased by 1.15% to 12900 yuan/ton [10]. Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3100 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.18% to 2754 yuan/ton [13]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2440 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.17% to 2361 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - Futures Market: On January 5, 2026, the price of the egg 03 contract increased by 1.39% to 2992 yuan per 500KG, and the price of the egg 04 contract increased by 1.15% to 3214 yuan per 500KG [15]. - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.23% to 3.02 yuan per catty, and the egg - chick price remained unchanged at 2.80 yuan per chick [15].