《能源化工》日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - Short - term cost support (stable coal prices) and de - stocking expectations drive the market to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. The port inventory is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in the first quarter, while the inland market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand [3]. Polyolefins - For PP, the valuation of marginal devices is still low, but there are few planned overhauls. If there are no overhauls from January to March, the pressure on the 05 contract will be relatively large. For PE, the supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving. Overall, the supply increases and the demand decreases in January, and the overall pressure is still relatively large [6]. Urea - The short - term high - supply pattern is difficult to change. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream raw material procurement intention is suppressed. The inventory continues to be destocked, which supports the price. The market is boosted by export expectations and geopolitical impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have weak short - term drivers and continue to oscillate at a low level. Styrene is supported in the short term but has limited rebound space due to downstream resistance and cost factors [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to show a trend of weakening steadily. PVC prices are expected to oscillate and weaken due to the excess supply - demand pattern [10]. Natural Rubber - There is a long - short game in the short - term natural rubber market, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions [11]. LPG No clear overall view provided in the document about the future trend of LPG. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is in a situation of weak downstream demand and increasing inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Glass has different situations in different regions, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening demand [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA are expected to have a weaker supply - demand situation in the first quarter. MEG has a large inventory accumulation expectation. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand pattern. Bottle - chip supply and demand both decrease, and it follows the cost side [17]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the medium - and long - term supply surplus pressure suppresses oil prices. It is expected that Brent oil prices will fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel in the short term [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Prices and Spreads: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased slightly, while the MA59 spread increased significantly. The prices of some spot varieties increased, and regional spreads decreased [1]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [2]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, and some downstream operating rates increased, while the MTO device operating rate decreased [3]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 decreased slightly. Some spot prices increased, and the base differentials changed [6]. - Inventory: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, while the PE social inventory increased slightly [6]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The PE device operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased. The PP device operating rate decreased slightly, and the powder operating rate increased [6]. Urea - Prices and Spreads: The futures price fluctuated strongly, and the spot price increased. The spreads between some contracts changed [8]. - Inventory: The domestic urea factory and port inventories decreased, and the production enterprise order days decreased [8]. - Supply and Demand: The daily and weekly production increased slightly, and the demand was in the off - season [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the prices of some related products changed [9]. - Inventory: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed, and the domestic pure benzene supply increased [9]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of some upstream and downstream industries changed, and the overall supply and demand pattern of pure benzene was weak [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices and Spreads: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot decreased to varying degrees, and the export profits changed [10]. - Supply and Demand: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly, and the demand of downstream industries was weak [10]. - Inventory: The caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased [10]. Natural Rubber - Prices and Spreads: The prices of some spot varieties increased, and the base differential and inter - month spreads changed [11]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory increased, and the warehouse - out rate and warehouse - in rate changed [11]. - Supply and Demand: The production in some regions changed, and the tire operating rates decreased [11]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: The prices of PG2602, PG2603, and PG2604 increased slightly, and the spreads between contracts and the base differential changed [14]. - Inventory: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio decreased [14]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The upstream main - refinery operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased slightly [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: The prices of glass and soda ash futures and spot changed slightly, and the base differential increased [16]. - Inventory: The glass factory and soda ash factory inventories increased, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased [16]. - Supply and Demand: The soda ash operating rate and weekly output decreased, and the downstream demand for soda ash was weak [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the prices of some upstream raw materials changed [17]. - Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows: The prices of some polyester products decreased slightly, and the cash flows and processing fees changed [17]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG changed, and the overall polyester industry operating rate situation was complex [17]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the spreads between contracts and different varieties changed [18]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between contracts changed [18]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: The crack spreads of some refined oil products changed [18].