建信期货镍日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - On the first trading day of 2026, Shanghai nickel continued its strong momentum, hitting a new high of over 136,000 yuan/ton during the session and closing at 134,000 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The total open interest increased by 18,000 lots to 357,000 lots. The sharp rise in nickel prices has driven up the prices of other products in the industry chain. The NPI price has increased to 930 yuan/nickel point, and the nickel salt price has risen to 28,215 yuan/ton. The rebound in LME nickel prices will also drive up the spot cost of nickel salts, and the nickel salt price is expected to continue to rise in the short term. The market is highly volatile, and investors should participate with caution [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the first trading day of 2026, Shanghai nickel maintained a strong trend, hitting a new high of over 136,000 yuan/ton during the session and closing at 134,000 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The total open interest increased by 18,000 lots to 357,000 lots [7]. - The sharp rise in nickel prices has led to continuous increases in the prices of other products in the industry chain. The NPI price on the 5th has increased to 930 yuan/nickel point, and it is considered a short - term rebound. Given the weak terminal consumption, the upside space may be limited. The nickel salt price has risen significantly to 28,215 yuan/ton, and the rebound in LME nickel prices will drive up the spot cost of nickel salts, with the nickel salt price continuing to rise in the short term [7]. - Stimulated by the news of the reduction of Indonesia's RKAB quota, market speculation sentiment remains high. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has set the nickel production target at around 290 million tons in 2026 to match the smelter capacity. Before the policy is finalized, it will continue to provide upward momentum for nickel prices, and the market will be highly volatile [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) stated that the government's nickel ore production target in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB. The purpose is to prevent further decline in nickel prices, but the implementation method is still unclear [8]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to implement a new position limit rule from July next year to follow the requirements of the UK financial regulator. The new rule will cover key contracts, including core futures products such as aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc, as well as related options and trading settlement contracts [10].