工业硅期货早报-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased and remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate between 8,625 - 8,835 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to decrease, the demand side shows short - term increase in silicon wafer production and is expected to decline in the medium - term, cell production decreases continuously, module production decreases continuously, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to fluctuate between 57,455 - 59,835 [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 73,000 tons, a 5.19% decrease from the previous week, and demand remains sluggish [6]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level of 306,000 tons; silicone inventory is at a low level of 53,200 tons; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 70,200 tons; social inventory is 557,000 tons, a 0.36% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 202,400 tons, a 3.48% increase; major port inventory is 140,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang region is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On January 5, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 470 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a 5.13% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for January is predicted to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 10.18GW, a 1.45% decrease from the previous week, and inventory was 231,900 tons, a 6.91% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule for January is 45.2GW, a 2.96% increase from the previous month. In December, cell output was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule for January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease. In December, module output was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease. The estimated module output in January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 31.3GW, a 5.43% decrease. Currently, module production is profitable [8]. - Cost: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,400 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On January 5, the price of N - type dense material was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 5,395 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 306,000 tons, a 0.99% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [10]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions decreased [9]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures Closing Price: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 0.97% - 1.65% [16]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate of some contracts exceeding 100% [16]. - Warehouse Receipt: The number of registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,231 [16]. - Organosilicon: The weekly DMC production was 43,100 tons, a 6.10% decrease from the previous week; the daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 65.53%; the daily DMC price remained unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton; the monthly DMC inventory was 53,200 tons, a 21.18% increase from the previous month [16]. - Aluminum Alloy: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 23,100 yuan/ton, a 2.90% increase from the previous day; the daily import ADC12 actual immediate profit was 90 yuan/ton, an 80.35% decrease from the previous day [16]. Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer: The prices of most daily silicon wafers remained unchanged; the weekly silicon wafer output was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week; the weekly silicon wafer inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [18]. - Cell: The prices of most daily cells remained unchanged; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease from the previous week; the monthly photovoltaic cell output was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease from the previous month [18]. - Module: The prices of most daily modules remained unchanged; the monthly module output was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease from the previous month; the domestic module inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month; the European module inventory was 31.3GW, a 5.44% decrease from the previous month [18]. 3. Industrial Silicon Downstream Market Organosilicon - DMC Price and Production: The DMC daily capacity utilization rate showed a certain fluctuation; the DMC price and cost remained relatively stable; the weekly DMC production showed a downward trend [44]. - Downstream Product Price: The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed a certain degree of stability [46]. - Import and Export and Inventory: The DMC monthly export and import volumes showed certain fluctuations; the DMC inventory showed an upward trend [51]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply: The waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, and aluminum scrap import volume showed certain fluctuations; the SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price showed an upward trend; the import ADC12 cost and profit showed certain changes [54]. - Inventory and Output: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots showed certain fluctuations; the weekly opening rates of primary aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy showed a downward trend; the aluminum alloy ingot social inventory showed a downward trend [57]. - Demand: The monthly output and sales of automobiles showed certain fluctuations; the export of aluminum alloy wheels showed a certain trend [58]. Polysilicon - Fundamental Situation: The polysilicon industry cost showed a certain trend; the polysilicon price showed a downward trend; the polysilicon total inventory showed an upward trend; the polysilicon monthly output and opening rate showed certain fluctuations; the polysilicon monthly demand showed a downward trend [64]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The polysilicon supply, import, export, and consumption showed certain fluctuations, and the supply - demand balance showed a trend of change [67]. - Silicon Wafer: The silicon wafer price showed a certain trend; the silicon wafer weekly output and inventory showed certain fluctuations; the silicon wafer monthly demand showed a downward trend; the net export of single - crystal silicon wafers and polysilicon wafers showed certain fluctuations [70]. - Cell: The price of single - crystal P/N type cells showed a certain trend; the cell production scheduling and actual output showed certain fluctuations; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories showed a downward trend; the photovoltaic cell opening rate showed a certain trend; the cell export showed an upward trend [73]. - Photovoltaic Module: The module price showed a certain trend; the domestic and European photovoltaic module inventories showed a downward trend; the module monthly output showed a downward trend; the module export showed an upward trend [76]. - Photovoltaic Accessories: The photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import and export volume, photovoltaic glass monthly output, and export volume, high - purity quartz sand price, and welding strip import and export volume all showed certain fluctuations [79]. - Component Composition Cost and Profit: The silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit and cost, cell profit and cost, and component profit and cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components all showed certain fluctuations [81]. - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation: The national new power generation installed capacity, power generation structure and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation all showed certain trends [83].